Graduated Licensing Laws and Fatal Crashes of Teenage Drivers: A National Study
Graduated Licensing Laws and Fatal Crashes of Teenage Drivers: A National Study
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DOI：
10.1080/15389580903578854
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发表时间：
2010-01-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Hellinga, Laurie A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
McCartt, Anne T.;Teoh, Eric R.;Hellinga, Laurie A.
目的：本研究的目的是量化1996-2007年间美国各州毕业的驾照法律和特定的驾照内容对每10万名青少年的青少年致命车祸发生率的影响。根据公路安全保险研究所之前开发的系统，州法律的优势被评为好、公平、边缘或差。方法：分析基于涉及致命车祸的司机的季度计数。使用泊松回归评估了总体评级和个人执照组成部分与青少年撞车率的关联，并控制了30-59岁司机对应的致命撞车率，控制了与分级驾照法律无关的国家或时间对撞车率的影响。结果：与被评为差的许可证法律相比，被评为好的法律在15至17岁的青少年中致命撞车几率降低了30%。被评为公平的法律将致命的撞车率降低了11%。许可年龄推迟越长，或者许可年龄推迟越长，15至17岁青少年的估计致命撞车率就越低。更强的夜间限制与更大的减少相关，法律将青少年乘客限制为零或一的减少幅度大于允许两名或更多青少年乘客的法律或没有乘客限制的法律。在考虑了任何相关的执照延迟的影响后，学习者许可证最短持有期的增加与致命的撞车率没有关联。所需练习驾驶时数的增加似乎与致命撞车率没有独立的联系。结论：包括严格的夜间和乘客限制在内的渐进式驾照法律，以及推迟学习者的驾照年龄和驾照年龄的法律，与较低的青少年致命车祸发生率有关。通过此类法律的州有望大幅减少车祸死亡人数。
Objectives: The objective of the current study was to quantify the effects of the strength of US state graduated driver licensing laws and specific licensing components on the rate of teenage driver fatal crash involvements per 100,000 teenagers during 1996-2007. The strengths of state laws were rated good, fair, marginal, or poor based on a system developed previously by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Methods: Analysis was based on quarterly counts of drivers involved in fatal crashes. Associations of overall ratings and individual licensing components with teenage crash rates were evaluated using Poisson regression, with the corresponding fatal crash rate for drivers ages 30-59 controlling for state- or time-dependent influences on crash rates unrelated to graduated licensing laws. Results: Compared with licensing laws rated poor, laws rated good were associated with 30 percent lower fatal crash rates among 15- to 17-year-olds. Laws rated fair yielded fatal crash rates 11 percent lower. The longer the permit age was delayed, or the longer the licensing age was delayed, the lower the estimated fatal crash rates among 15- to 17-year-olds. Stronger nighttime restrictions were associated with larger reductions, and reductions were larger for laws limiting teenage passengers to zero or one than laws allowing two or more teenage passengers or laws without passenger restrictions. After the effects of any related delay in licensure were accounted for, an increase in the minimum learner's permit holding period showed no association with fatal crash rates. An increase in required practice driving hours did not appear to have an independent association with fatal crash rates. Conclusions: Graduated licensing laws that include strong nighttime and passenger restrictions and laws that delay the learner's permit age and licensing age are associated with lower teenage fatal crash rates. States that adopt such laws can expect to achieve substantial reductions in crash deaths.