Quantifying hydrological responses of small Mediterranean catchments under climate change projections.
Quantifying hydrological responses of small Mediterranean catchments under climate change projections.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.07.006
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发表时间：
2016-02
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
H. Sellami;S. Benabdallah;I. La Jeunesse;M. Vanclooster
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Sellami;S. Benabdallah;I. La Jeunesse;M. Vanclooster
流域流量制度的改变很可能是一个突出的后果，气候变化预测在地中海。在这里，我们探讨了气候变化对流量状况的陶和千叶集水区，分别位于法国南部和突尼斯东北部的潜在影响。土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）水文模型被迫从4个气候模型（CM）的集合预测，以评估相关水文指标的变化和不确定性，这些指标与参考（1971-2000）和未来（2041-2071）时期之间的水平衡、流量大小、频率和时间有关。结果表明，这两个集水区很可能会经历一个降水量减少和温度上升的未来。因此，径流量和土壤含水量预计将减少，而潜在的蒸散量可能会增加，在这两个集水区。尽管不确定，但这些变化的预测幅度在湿润期比干旱期高。极端流量的分析表明，在这两个集水区类似的趋势，预计在不同的持续时间的高流量和低流量的幅度减少。此外，预计这两个集水区的低流量频率作为水文干旱的代理显着增加，但在湿润期比在干燥期具有更高的不确定性。虽然预测不同流量持续时间的最大和最小流量事件的平均时间没有变化，但水文预测仍存在很大的不确定性。虽然两个集水区的结果显示，大多数水文指标的变化趋势一致，但预计千叶集水区的流态总体变化程度高于陶集水区。预测的变化幅度以及相关的不确定性取决于流域特征和流量季节性。
Catchment flow regimes alteration is likely to be a prominent consequence of climate change projections in the Mediterranean. Here we explore the potential effects of climatic change on the flow regime of the Thau and the Chiba catchments which are located in Southern France and Northeastern Tunisia, respectively. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model is forced with projections from an ensemble of 4 climate model (CM) to assess changes and uncertainty in relevant hydrological indicators related to water balance, magnitude, frequency and timing of the flow between a reference (1971–2000) and future (2041–2071) periods. Results indicate that both catchments are likely to experience a decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature in the future. Consequently, runoff and soil water content are projected to decrease whereas potential evapotranspiration is likely to increase in both catchments. Yet uncertain, the projected magnitudes of these changes are higher in the wet period than in the dry period. Analyses of extreme flow show similar trend in both catchments, projecting a decrease in both high flow and low flow magnitudes for various time durations. Further, significant increase in low flow frequency as a proxy for hydrological droughts is projected for both catchments but with higher uncertainty in the wet period than in the dry period. Although no changes in the average timing of maximum and minimum flow events for different flow durations are projected, substantial uncertainty remains in the hydrological projections. While the results in both catchments show consistent trend of change for most of the hydrologic indicators, the overall degree of alteration on the flow regime of the Chiba catchment is projected to be higher than that of the Thau catchment. The projected magnitudes of alteration as well as their associated uncertainty vary depending on the catchment characteristics and flow seasonality.