Perturbing a Weather Generator using change factors derived from Regional Climate Model simulations
Perturbing a Weather Generator using change factors derived from Regional Climate Model simulations
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DOI：
10.5194/npg-18-503-2011
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发表时间：
2011-07
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
P. Jones;C. Harpham;C. Goodess;C. Kilsby
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Jones;C. Harpham;C. Goodess;C. Kilsby
抽象的。本文的目的是提供一种扰动天气发生器（WG）的方法，为未来几十年，并评估其有效性。在这里的程序被应用到工作组内实施UKCP 09包和评估使用的数据从区域气候模型（RCM）模拟提供了一个显着的“气候变化”之间的控制运行期间和遥远的未来。工作组通常根据观测数据进行校准。对于这项研究，从RCM控制期间（1961-1990年）的数据被使用，然后扰动使用的程序。因为只有每月的RCM控制和情景期间之间的差异被用来扰动工作组，直接每日RCM情景可以被认为是看不见的数据，以评估扰动程序如何再现直接RCM模拟的未来。
Abstract. The purpose of this paper is to provide a method for perturbing Weather Generators (WGs) for future decades and to assess its effectiveness. Here the procedure is applied to the WG implemented within the UKCP09 package and assessed using data from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulation which provides a significant "climate change" between a control run period and a distant future. The WG is normally calibrated on observed data. For this study, data from an RCM control period (1961–1990) was used, then perturbed using the procedure. Because only monthly differences between the RCM control and scenario periods are used to perturb the WG, the direct daily RCM scenario may be considered as unseen data to assess how well the perturbation procedure reproduces the direct RCM simulations for the future.