Accounting for tropical cyclones more than doubles the global population exposed to low-probability coastal flooding
Accounting for tropical cyclones more than doubles the global population exposed to low-probability coastal flooding
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DOI：
10.1038/s43247-021-00204-9
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发表时间：
2021-06-29
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dullaart, Job C. M.;Muis, Sanne;Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
发生在低洼、人口稠密的海岸线上的风暴潮会对社会、经济和生态造成毁灭性的影响。为了保护沿海社区免受洪水侵袭，必须准确评估风暴潮的回归期，风暴潮被定义为涨潮和潮汐的结合。在这里，我们使用两种建模技术的新颖集成来呈现风暴潮返回期。对于温带气旋引起的浪涌，我们使用了基于ERA5气候再分析的38年时间序列。对于热带气旋引起的风暴潮，我们使用了当前气候条件下代表1万年的STORM数据集中的合成热带气旋。热带和温带气旋风暴潮水位与潮汐水位概率结合，并根据经验计算重现期。我们估计，有7800万人面临由温带气旋引起的千年一遇的洪水，如果考虑到热带气旋，这一数字将增加一倍多，达到1.92亿人。我们的研究结果表明，以前的研究低估了31%的低概率沿海洪水的全球暴露。根据综合考虑低概率但高影响的热带气旋的数值模拟，近2亿人面临1000年一遇的沿海洪水事件，比之前的估计多出约31%
Storm surges that occur along low-lying, densely populated coastlines can leave devastating societal, economical, and ecological impacts. To protect coastal communities from flooding, return periods of storm tides, defined as the combination of the surge and tide, must be accurately evaluated. Here we present storm tide return periods using a novel integration of two modelling techniques. For surges induced by extratropical cyclones, we use a 38-year time series based on the ERA5 climate reanalysis. For surges induced by tropical cyclones, we use synthetic tropical cyclones from the STORM dataset representing 10,000 years under current climate conditions. Tropical and extratropical cyclone surge levels are probabilistically combined with tidal levels, and return periods are computed empirically. We estimate that 78 million people are exposed to a 1 in 1000-year flood caused by extratropical cyclones, which more than doubles to 192M people when taking tropical cyclones into account. Our results show that previous studies have underestimated the global exposure to low-probability coastal flooding by 31%. Just under 200 million people are exposed to 1 in 1000-year coastal flooding events, about 31% more than previously estimated, according to a combination of numerical simulations which account for low-probability but high-impact tropical cyclones