THE ROLE OF SEASON IN THE EPIDEMIOLOGY OF INFLUENZA
THE ROLE OF SEASON IN THE EPIDEMIOLOGY OF INFLUENZA
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DOI：
10.1017/s0022172400068728
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发表时间：
1981-01-01
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
HOPESIMPSON, RE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
HOPESIMPSON, RE
使用四种类型的观察来说明流行性流感的季节性特征：1946-74年连续28年中小群体的经历；向世界卫生组织报告了 1964-75 年世界流感疫情；大约同一纬度的 2 个相距遥远的地点的经验，1969-74 年；以及北纬30度2个地方的经历。 + 赤道两侧，1968-74。即使在小社区中，几乎每年都会在同一季节爆发流感。疫情在全球范围内普遍存在，流行病点几乎每年都会在地球表面平稳地来回移动，其曲线与垂直太阳辐射的仲夏曲线平行，但滞后约 6 个月。在它后面。这些发现排除了任何当地分布机构对季节性控制的调节，并表明太阳辐射某些成分的变化对病毒或人类宿主有直接影响。甲型流感病毒的抗原变异往往与流行病具有相同的季节性特征，这表明流行病和病毒变异是1个季节性控制过程的两个方面。这些季节性特征都无法用当前的流感流行病学概念来解释。最近提出并在附录中概述的一个新假设提供了可能的解释。调节季节性控制的主要机构仍然不明。
Four types of observations were used to illustrate the seasonal characteristics of epidemic infuenza: the experience of a small population during 28 consecutive years, 1946-74; world influenza outbreaks 1964-75 reported to the WHO; the experience of 2 widely separated localities at about the same latitude, 1969-74; and the experience of 2 places at latitudes 30.degree. + on opposite sides of the Equator, 1968-74. Outbreaks of influenza even in the small community came at approximately the same season almost every yr. Outbreaks are globally ubiquitous and epidemic loci move smoothly to and fro across the surface of the earth almost every yr in a sinuous curve that runs parallel with the midsummer curve of vertical solar radiation, but lags about 6 mo. behind it. Such findings exclude the mediation of seasonal control by any agencies of local distribution, and suggest a direct effect of variations in some component of solar radiation on virus or human host. Antigenic variations in influenza A virus tended to have the same seasonal characteristics as epidemicity, suggesting that epidemicity and virus variation are 2 facets of 1 seasonally controlled process. None of these seasonal characteristics can be explained by the current concept of influenzal epidemiology. A new hypothesis recently proposed and recapitulated in the Appendix offers a possible explanation. The primary agency mediating seasonal control remains unidentified.