Changes in Onset and Withdrawal of the East Asian Summer Rainy Season by Multi-Model Global Warming Experiments
Changes in Onset and Withdrawal of the East Asian Summer Rainy Season by Multi-Model Global Warming Experiments
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DOI：
10.2151/jmsj.84.247
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发表时间：
2006-04
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
A. Kitoh;T. Uchiyama
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Kitoh;T. Uchiyama
白云-昌马-梅雨是东亚(日本、韩国和中国)初夏的雨季，其变异性和变化是这些地区气候变化预测的主要焦点之一。利用21世纪末SRES AIB情景下15个耦合大气-海洋环流模式(AOGCM)模拟的逐日降水资料，分析了全球变暖对白云-昌马-梅雨降水强度和持续时间的影响。结果表明，从台湾、琉球群岛到日本南部的地区，初夏降水的延迟撤退与长江盆地的早些时候的撤雨形成了鲜明对比，尽管后者并不显著，因为模式之间的变化迹象不一致。未来热带西太平洋较高的平均海平面气压异常可能与这些较晚的撤退有关。与停药日期相比，起病日期的变化相对较小。
Baiu-Changma-Meiyu is a rainy period in early summer over East Asia (Japan, Korea and China) and its variability and change is one of the major focus in climate change projections in these areas. We analyze the changes in intensity and duration of Baiu-Changma-Meiyu rain by global warming using daily precipitation data of fifteen coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations under the SRES AIB scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is revealed that a delay in early summer rain withdrawal over the region extending from Taiwan, Ryukyu Islands to the south of Japan is contrasted with an earlier withdrawal over the Yangtjze Basin, although the latter is not significant due to inconsistent sign of changes among the models. Higher mean sea-level pressure anomalies in the tropical western Pacific in the future may be related to these late withdrawals. Changes in onset dates are relatively less compared to those in withdrawal dates.