Oil bonanza and the composition of government expenditure
Oil bonanza and the composition of government expenditure
复制标题
石油富矿和政府支出的构成
DOI：
10.1007/s10101-020-00246-3
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
0.9
通讯作者：
Sovannroeun Samreth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Keisuke Okada;Sovannroeun Samreth
政府行为会受到自然资源利益的影响。仁慈的政府和政治领袖可能会利用它们来提高人民的福利，而其他人可能会利用它们来谋取自己的利益。为了全面考察石油富矿对政府行为的影响，本研究利用1972年至2008年间168个国家的数据，调查了巨型油田的发现如何影响政府支出的规模和构成。我们发现微弱的证据表明，大油田的发现在中长期内显著增加了政府总支出，而它们的影响在短期内更为明显，特别是在控制其他影响政府总支出的因素时。我们还获得了民主在这些影响中起中介作用的证据；如果民主主义水平得到巩固，即使发现巨大的油田，政府总支出规模也不会增加。考虑到政府支出的各个类别，大油田的发现显著增加了卫生和社会保障支出，而减少了教育支出。此外，大油田的发现减少了经济事务和国防开支，增加了一般公共服务和公共秩序和安全。最后，大型油田的发现在长期内增加了净隐性汽油补贴。这些发现增强了我们对石油财富对政府行为影响的理解。
Government behavior can be affected by natural resource benefits. Benevolent government and political leaders may use them to improve the welfare of the people, whereas others may use them for their own interests. To examine the effects of oil bonanza on government behavior comprehensively, this study investigates how giant oilfield discoveries affect the size and composition of government expenditure using data from 168 countries between 1972 and 2008. We find weak evidence that giant oilfield discoveries increase total government expenditure significantly in the medium and long term, whereas their effects are more evident in the short term, especially when controlling for other factors affecting total government expenditure. We also obtain evidence that democracy plays a mediating role in these effects; if the democracy level in a country is consolidated, the size of total government spending does not increase even when discovering giant oilfields. Considering each category of government expenditure, giant oilfield discoveries increase expenditure on health and social protection significantly, whereas they decrease educational expenditure. Furthermore, giant oilfield discoveries decrease expenditure on economic affairs and defense and increase general public services and public order and safety. Finally, giant oilfield discoveries increase the net implicit gasoline subsidy in the long term. These findings enhance our understanding of the effects of oil bonanza on government behavior.