Basement Fault Activation before Larger Earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas
Basement Fault Activation before Larger Earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas
复制标题
俄克拉荷马州和堪萨斯州大地震前的地下室断层活动
DOI：
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
W. Ellsworth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yongsook Park;G. Beroza;W. Ellsworth
由于与非常规碳氢化合物开发相关的地震，俄克拉荷马州和堪萨斯州在过去十年经历了前所未有的地震活动。该地区的自然地震活动不大，对断层网络的了解不完全，因此很难预测较大震级(Mw≥，4级)地震的发生地点。在这里，我们表明，使用预先训练的神经相位选择器和地震重新定位算法来监测区域尺度的微震可以照亮未知的断层结构，并提供可以综合用于地震预报的信息。我们发现，根据地震发生前形成的地震活动集群的空间范围，过去十年发生的较大地震中有80%是可以预测到的。我们还发现，一旦形成了一个具有足够大地震规模的地震活动集群，它有5%的可能性在一年内主办一次或多次更大的地震。这一概率几乎比基于古登堡-里希特统计数据和之前地震活动的概率高出一个数量级。在实践中应用我们的方法可以为风险管理和监管决策提供有关地震危害的关键信息。
Oklahoma and Kansas experienced unprecedented seismic activity over the past decade due to earthquakes associated with unconventional hydrocarbon development. The modest natural seismicity and incomplete knowledge of the fault network in the region made it difficult to anticipate the locations of earthquakes with larger magnitudes (Mw≥4). Here, we show that monitoring of microearthquakes at regional scale using a pretrained neural phase picker and an earthquake relocation algorithm can illuminate unknown fault structures, and deliver information that can be synthesized for earthquake forecasting. We found that 80% of the larger earthquakes that occurred in the past decade could have been anticipated based on the spatial extent of the seismicity clusters that were formed before these earthquakes occurred. We also found that once a seismicity cluster with a length scale enough to host a larger earthquake was formed, there was a ∼5% chance that it would host one or more larger earthquakes within a year. This probability is nearly an order of magnitude higher than one based on Gutenberg–Richter statistics and preceding seismicity. Applying our approach in practice can provide critical information on seismic hazards for risk management and regulatory decision making.
影响因子：
2.8
作者：
Zhu, Weiqiang;Beroza, Gregory C.
通讯作者：
Beroza, Gregory C.