Economic impacts of inbound tourism under different assumptions regarding the macroeconomy.
Economic impacts of inbound tourism under different assumptions regarding the macroeconomy.
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DOI：
10.1080/13683500008667877
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发表时间：
2000-01-01
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Spurr, R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dwyer, L.;Forsyth, P.;Spurr, R.
本文认为，在确定旅游支出增加对目的地的影响时，必须考虑整个经济的影响。不断扩大的旅游业往往会“挤出”其他经济活动部门，从而减少对传统出口和进口竞争产业的需求。这些“挤出”效应的程度又取决于劳动力市场的运作、价格和实际汇率的变化以及宏观经济政策环境。有人认为，只有使用可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型而不是输入输出模型才能正确考虑这些机制。然后，本文探讨了 CGE 模型在国家和地区旅游业增长中的应用，并根据对劳动力市场和政府政策的假设对各种研究进行了分类。该讨论与估计所有目的地旅游业的经济贡献相关。本文最后对 CGE 模型在国际旅游环境中的使用进行了一些观察，并提出了进一步研究的问题。
This paper argues that economy-wide effects must be taken into account in determining the impacts of increased tourism expenditure on a destination. An expanding tourism industry tends to 'crowd out' other sectors of economic activity, reducing the demand for traditional exports and import competing industries. The extent of these 'crowding out' effects depends, in turn, on the workings of labour markets, changes in prices and the real exchange rate, and the macroeconomic policy context. It is argued that these mechanisms can only properly be taken into account using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models rather than input-output modelling. The paper then looks at applications of CGE modelling to tourism growth in both nations and regions, classifying the various studies according to assumptions made about labour markets and government policies. The discussion has relevance for estimating the economic contribution of tourism in all destinations. The paper concludes with some observations regarding the use of CGE modelling in tourism contexts internationally and issues for further research.