Climate change impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of European forest ecosystems
Climate change impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of European forest ecosystems
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DOI：
10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.023
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发表时间：
2010-02-05
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Marchetti, Marco
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lindner, Marcus;Maroschek, Michael;Marchetti, Marco
本研究汇编并总结了有关气候变化对欧洲森林已观测到的和预测的影响的现有知识。森林不仅要适应平均气候变量的变化，还要适应变异性的增加以及极端天气事件（如长期干旱、风暴和洪水）风险的增大。对欧洲森林的敏感性、潜在影响、适应能力以及对气候变化的脆弱性进行了综述。针对北方、温带海洋性、温带大陆性、地中海和山区，总结了气候变化对森林产品和服务最重要的潜在影响。特别是在北欧和西欧，大气中二氧化碳含量的增加和气温的升高预计至少在中短期内会对森林生长和木材生产产生积极影响。另一方面，干旱和干扰风险的增加将产生不利影响。在南欧和东欧，这些负面影响很可能超过积极趋势。从西到东，干旱风险增加。在地中海地区，由于干旱和火灾风险大幅增加，预计生产力将会下降。适应能力包括树木和森林生态系统固有的适应能力以及决定实施有计划适应能力的社会经济因素。北方和温带海洋性地区森林部门的适应能力相对较强，温带大陆性地区更多地受到社会经济因素的限制，而在地中海地区则最为有限，该地区大片森林仅进行粗放管理或无人管理。关于木材生产，对潜在影响和风险的研究和了解最为充分。很明显，欧洲森林提供的所有其他产品和服务也会受到气候变化的影响，但可用于量化这些影响的知识要少得多。对欧洲森林适应能力和区域对气候变化的脆弱性的了解还不够深入，需要更有针对性的研究努力。需要一个与监测网络和预测模型相结合的跨学科研究议程，以便为从政策制定到管理单位的各级决策提供信息。（C）2009爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
This study compiles and summarizes the existing knowledge about observed and projected impacts of climate change on forests in Europe. Forests will have to adapt not only to changes in mean climate variables but also to increased variability with greater risk of extreme weather events, such as prolonged drought, storms and floods. Sensitivity, potential impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability to climate change are reviewed for European forests. The most important potential impacts of climate change on forest goods and services are summarized for the Boreal, Temperate Oceanic, Temperate Continental, Mediterranean, and mountainous regions. Especially in northern and western Europe the increasing atmospheric CO2 content and warmer temperatures are expected to result in positive effects on forest growth and wood production, at least in the short-medium term. On the other hand, increasing drought and disturbance risks will cause adverse effects. These negative impacts are very likely to outweigh positive trends in southern and eastern Europe. From west to east, the drought risk increases. In the Mediterranean regions productivity is expected to decline due to strongly increased droughts and fire risks.Adaptive capacity consists of the inherent adaptive capacity of trees and forest ecosystems and of socio-economic factors determining the capability to implement planned adaptation. The adaptive capacity in the forest sector is relatively large in the Boreal and the Temperate Oceanic regions, more constrained by socio-economic factors in the Temperate Continental, and most limited in the Mediterranean region where large forest areas are only extensively managed or unmanaged.Potential impacts and risks are best studied and understood with respect to wood production. It is clear that all other goods and services provided by European forests will also be impacted by climate change, but much less knowledge is available to quantify these impacts. Understanding of adaptive capacity and regional vulnerability to climate change in European forests is not well developed and requires more focussed research efforts. An interdisciplinary research agenda integrated with monitoring networks and projection models is needed to provide information at all levels of decision making, from policy development to the management unit. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.