Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model
Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model
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DOI：
10.1257/aeri.20200590
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发表时间：
2021-12-01
影响因子：
8.5
通讯作者：
Whinston, Michael D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Acemoglu, Daron;Chernozhukov, Victor;Whinston, Michael D.
我们在多组SIR模型中研究了有针对性的封锁，其中感染率，住院率和死亡率在组之间变化，特别是在“年轻人”，“中年人”和“老年人”之间。“我们的模型能够对最优政策进行易于处理的定量分析。对于适用于美国的COVID-19大流行的基线参数值，我们发现针对风险/年龄组的差异化最优政策显著优于最优统一政策，并且大部分收益可以通过采取更严格的保护措施来实现，例如对更脆弱的老年群体进行封锁。直觉，对老年人的严格和长期封锁既减少了感染，也使低风险群体的封锁不那么严格。
We study targeted lockdowns in a multigroup SIR model where infection, hospitalization, and fatality rates vary between groups in particular between the "young," the "middle-aged," and the "old." Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of optimal policy. For baseline parameter values for the COVID-19 pandemic applied to the US, we find that optimal policies differentially targeting risk/age groups significantly outperform optimal uniform policies and most of the gains can be realized by having stricter protective measures such as lockdowns on the more vulnerable, old group. Intuitively, a strict and long lockdown for the old both reduces infections and enables less strict lockdowns for the lower-risk groups.