How can the EU climate targets be met? A combined analysis of technological and demand-side changes in food and agriculture
How can the EU climate targets be met? A combined analysis of technological and demand-side changes in food and agriculture
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.foodpol.2015.12.012
复制
发表时间：
2016-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.5
通讯作者：
Sonesson, Ulf
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bryngeisson, David;Wirsenius, Stefan;Sonesson, Ulf
为了达到2摄氏度的气候目标，化石燃料产生的二氧化碳需要大幅减少温室气体排放，但很可能农业和其他来源的甲烷和一氧化二氮也需要大幅减少。然而，人们对农业中的温室气体减排潜力知之甚少，特别是对技术进步和饮食变化的综合影响知之甚少。在这里，我们估计了技术和需求的变化可以减少瑞典食品相关的温室气体排放的程度，这是达到欧盟气候目标所必需的。这一分析是基于对粮食和农业系统的详细描述，使用了30种不同的粮食品种。我们发现，与食品有关的甲烷和一氧化二氮的排放可以减少到足以满足欧盟2050年的气候目标。从技术上讲，农业可以通过实施具体的缓解措施来提高生产力。在乐观的假设下，这些发展可以将目前与食品有关的甲烷和一氧化二氮排放减少近50%。然而，饮食的改变几乎肯定是必要的。如果要达到欧盟的目标，反刍动物肉（牛肉和羊肉）的消费量大幅减少50%或更多，很可能是不可避免的。相比之下，猪肉和禽肉或乳制品的持续高人均消费可能被纳入气候目标。然而，只有在技术取得实质性进展的情况下，高乳制品消费才符合目标。减少食物浪费对实现气候目标的作用不大，仅能额外减少1-3%的排放量。(C) 2016年作者。Elsevier Ltd.出版。这是一篇基于CC BY-NC-ND许可（http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/）的开放获取文章。
To meet the 2 degrees C climate target, deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be required for carbon dioxide from fossil fuels but, most likely, also for methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture and other sources. However, relatively little is known about the GHG mitigation potential in agriculture, in particular with respect to the combined effects of technological advancements and dietary changes. Here, we estimate the extent to which changes in technology and demand can reduce Swedish food-related GHG emissions necessary for meeting EU climate targets. This analysis is based on a detailed representation of the food and agriculture system, using 30 different food items.We find that food-related methane and nitrous oxide emissions can be reduced enough to meet the EU 2050 climate targets. Technologically, agriculture can improve in productivity and through implementation of specific mitigation measures. Under optimistic assumptions, these developments could cut current food-related methane and nitrous oxide emissions by nearly 50%. However, also dietary changes will almost certainly be necessary. Large reductions, by 50% or more, in ruminant meat (beef and mutton) consumption are, most likely, unavoidable if the EU targets are to be met. In contrast, continued high per-capita consumption of pork and poultry meat or dairy products might be accommodated within the climate targets. High dairy consumption, however, is only compatible with the targets if there are substantial advances in technology. Reducing food waste plays a minor role for meeting the climate targets, lowering emissions only by an additional 1-3%. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).