Prediction in ungauged estuaries: An integrated theory
Prediction in ungauged estuaries: An integrated theory
复制标题
未测量河口的预测：综合理论
DOI：
10.1002/2015wr016936
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
H. Savenije
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Savenije
世界上许多河口都没有测量。国际水文科学协会于 2012 年完成了其关于未测量盆地预测 (PUB) 的科学十年（Hrachowitz 等人，）。基于有限数据的预测是水文学中的一个挑战，但在河口同样如此，因为那里经常缺乏基本过程的数据。本文提出了相对简单但基于科学的方法，使研究人员、工程师和水管理人员能够根据地形图和潮汐表等容易获得的信息，获得河口基本过程参数的一阶估计，例如河口深度、潮汐幅度、潮汐偏移、相位滞后和盐水入侵。这些看似简单的关系被认为是由可自由侵蚀的水体根据外部驱动因素进行自我调整并尽可能有效地耗散这些驱动因素的自由能的能力产生的。因此，假设这些系统的运行接近其热力学极限，从而产生可以通过相对简单的方程描述的可预测模式。尽管要发展基于物理的整体理论还有很多工作要做，但这并不妨碍我们利用在冲积河口观察到的经验“定律”。
Many estuaries in the world are ungauged. The International Association of Hydrological Sciences completed its science decade on Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) in 2012 (Hrachowitz et al., ). Prediction on the basis of limited data is a challenge in hydrology, but not less so in estuaries, where data on fundamental processes are often lacking. In this paper, relatively simple, but science‐based, methods are presented that allow researchers, engineers, and water managers to obtain first‐order estimates of essential process parameters in estuaries, such as the estuary depth, the tidal amplitude, the tidal excursion, the phase lag, and the salt water intrusion, on the basis of readily obtainable information, such as topographical maps and tidal tables. These apparently simple relationships are assumed to result from the capacity of freely erodible water bodies to adjust themselves to external drivers and to dissipate the free energy from these drivers as efficiently as possible. Thus, it is assumed that these systems operate close to their thermodynamic limit, resulting in predictable patterns that can be described by relatively simple equations. Although still much has to be done to develop an overall physics‐based theory, this does not prevent us from making use of the empirical “laws” that we observe in alluvial estuaries.