A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2
A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2
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DOI：
10.1126/science.abc6810
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发表时间：
2020-08-14
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Trapman, Pieter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Britton, Tom;Ball, Frank;Trapman, Pieter
尽管采取了不同程度的预防措施，但于二零二零年，多个国家仍遭受由严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型（SARS-CoV-2）病毒引起的2019冠状病毒（COVID-19）大流行的严重影响。使用一个模型，我们表明，人口异质性可以影响疾病诱导的免疫力相当大，因为在接触率最高的群体中的感染个体的比例大于接触率低的群体。我们估计，如果R-0 = 2.5，在一个年龄结构的社区与混合率适合社会活动，那么疾病引起的群体免疫水平可以是类似的43%，这是大大低于经典的群体免疫水平的60%，通过均匀免疫的人口。我们的估计值应被解释为说明群体异质性如何影响群体免疫力，而不是一个确切的值，甚至是一个最佳的估计。
Despite various levels of preventive measures, in 2020, many countries have suffered severely from the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. Using a model, we show that population heterogeneity can affect disease-induced immunity considerably because the proportion of infected individuals in groups with the highest contact rates is greater than that in groups with low contact rates. We estimate that if R-0 = 2.5 in an age-structured community with mixing rates fitted to social activity, then the disease-induced herd immunity level can be similar to 43%, which is substantially less than the classical herd immunity level of 60% obtained through homogeneous immunization of the population. Our estimates should be interpreted as an illustration of how population heterogeneity affects herd immunity rather than as an exact value or even a best estimate.