Can Earthquake Loss Models be Validated Using Field Observations?
Can Earthquake Loss Models be Validated Using Field Observations?
复制标题
地震损失模型可以通过现场观测进行验证吗？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Bommer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Crowley;P. Stafford;J. Bommer
破坏性地震的发生提供了一个机会，比较观察到的和估计的损失，提供了详细的观察地震影响的领域。由此产生的一个问题是，这种比较是否可以提供地震损失模型的验证基础。为了探讨这一问题，北方马尔马拉地区的案例研究损失模型已经成立，损失已计算出各种地面运动场时出现的不同假设的地面运动的变化。特别是，去除事件间的变化，为一个场景地震和地面运动之间的空间相关性建模的影响进行了研究。进一步的分析进行假设，一些加速度记录可在该区域内，因此，地面运动之间的空间相关性的知识可以用来更好地预测在记录站附近的网站的运动。结果表明，除非有一个密集的网络的加速器（与曝光的地理分辨率相称），那么在损失的变化不能充分减少，允许验证的损失模型。
The occurrence of a damaging earthquake provides an opportunity to compare observed and estimated damage, provided that detailed observations of the earthquake effects are made in the field. A question that arises is whether such comparisons can provide the basis for validation of an earthquake loss model. In order to explore this issue, a case study loss model for the northern Marmara region has been set up and the losses have been calculated for various ground-motion fields that arise when different assumptions are made about the ground-motion variability. In particular, the influence of removing the inter-event variability for a scenario earthquake and modeling spatial correlation among ground motions is studied. Further analyses are conducted assuming that a number of accelerograms are available within the region and that knowledge of spatial correlations among ground motions can therefore be used to better predict the motions at sites in the vicinity of the recording stations. The results demonstrate that unless one has a dense network of accelerographs (commensurate with the geographical resolution of exposure), then the variability in the losses cannot be sufficiently reduced to allow validation of the loss model.