Promoting Democracy: Is Exporting Revolution a Constructive Strategy?
Promoting Democracy: Is Exporting Revolution a Constructive Strategy?
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促进民主：输出革命是建设性战略吗？
DOI：
10.1353/dss.2006.0090
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
0.5
通讯作者：
M. Beissinger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Beissinger
在过去五年中，塞尔维亚、格鲁吉亚、乌克兰和吉尔吉斯斯坦发生了四次成功的革命，推翻了伪民主政权，并使承诺进行民主改革的新联盟上台。现在，整个地区的民主活动人士对革命有着巨大的兴趣。“颜色革命”（因其采用“人民力量”的非暴力抵抗策略和象征性地使用颜色来识别支持者而得名）激发了亚美尼亚，阿塞拜疆，白俄罗斯，哈萨克斯坦，摩尔多瓦，俄罗斯，塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦的反对派团体。远至黎巴嫩、埃及、多哥和津巴布韦等地的反对派都因这些事态发展而变得更加大胆。就像1848年后的欧洲君主一样，后苏联的强人们现在担心革命会跨国蔓延到他们的封地。一些国家已经采取了反制措施来避免这种可能性。今天的后苏联欧亚大陆是一个被革命性变革及其后果的希望和恐惧所吞噬的地区。
Over the past five years, four successful revolutions have occurred in Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan, overthrowing pseudodemocratic regimes and bringing to power new coalitions expressing commitment to democratic reform. There is now enormous interest in revolution among democratic activists throughout the region. The "colored revolutions" (so named for their adoption of "people power" tactics of nonviolent resistance and their symbolic use of colors to identify supporters) have inspired oppositional groups in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Oppositions in places as distant as Lebanon, Egypt, Togo, and Zimbabwe have been emboldened by these developments. Like European monarchs after 1848, post-Soviet strongmen are now concerned about the transnational spread of revolution to their fiefdoms. Some have already taken counter-measures to stave off such a possibility. Post-Soviet Eurasia today is a region consumed by the hope and fear of revolutionary change—and of its aftermath.