Optimal Entry Timing for a Product Line Extension
Optimal Entry Timing for a Product Line Extension
复制标题
产品线延伸的最佳进入时机
DOI：
10.1287/mksc.8.1.1
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发表时间：
1989
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
J. Norton
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. Wilson;J. Norton
为了使原产品和新产品的总利润最大化，企业应该在什么时候引进新产品或改进产品？我们确定了影响这个问题答案的三个关键问题：由于替代和扩散，两种产品的销售之间的相互关系，两种产品的相对利润率，以及公司的规划范围长度与原始产品的扩散时间的关系。我们开发了一种模式，其中第一种产品的单位利润率更高；然而，销售发展缓慢。产品线的延长降低了单位利润率，部分蚕食了原产品的销售，但也拓宽了市场，使销售发展得更快。延长生产线的推出时间会影响产品的后续销售模式和计划期内的总利润。最优进入时间取决于产品对的可替代性。我们表明，最好是在原始产品生命周期的早期引入生产线扩展，或者根本不引入它。考虑动态现象会有所不同。例如，我们的结果表明，在某些情况下，应该尽早引入线扩展，而忽略扩散和有限规划水平的含义的更简单的静态分析表明，线扩展不应该引入。
When should a firm introduce a line extension or improved product in order to maximize total profits from the original product and the line extension? We identify three critical issues which affect the answer to this question: the interrelationship of sales of the two products because of substitution and diffusion, the relative margins of the two products, and the relationship of the length of the firm's planning horizon to the original product's diffusion time. We develop a model in which the first product contributes a higher unit margin; however, sales develop slowly. The line extension contributes a lower unit margin and partially cannibalizes sales of the original product, but also broadens the market, causing sales to develop more rapidly. The timing of the introduction of the line extension affects the subsequent sales pattern for both products and the total profit to be made within the planning period. The optimal entry time depends upon the product pair's substitutability. We show that it is best either to introduce the line extension at a time early in the life cycle of the original product or not to introduce it at all. Consideration of dynamic phenomena can make a difference. For example, our results indicate that in some cases the line extension should be introduced early, whereas a simpler static analysis which neglects diffusion and the implications of a finite planning horizon would indicate that the line extension should never be introduced.