Comparing strategies for controlling an African pest rodent: an empirically based theoretical study
Comparing strategies for controlling an African pest rodent: an empirically based theoretical study
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DOI：
10.1046/j.1365-2664.2001.00656.x
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发表时间：
2001-10
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
N. Stenseth;H. Leirs;S. Mercelis;P. Mwanjabe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Stenseth;H. Leirs;S. Mercelis;P. Mwanjabe
1一般小型啮齿动物，特别是多栖大鼠Mastomys natalensis，通过破坏作物给非洲造成重大经济损失。为这种和其他有害啮齿动物开发动态种群模型的尝试正在进行中。来自坦桑尼亚捕获-标记-再捕获（CMR）研究的人口统计估计用于参数化该物种的种群模型。该模型包含了三种不同性别的功能年龄类别（幼鱼、亚成虫和成虫），并使用了密度依赖因子和密度独立因子，后者以降雨量为代表。采用模型分析灭鼠对种群动态和鼠数的影响。考虑了影响生存和繁殖的控制措施。该模型表明，降低存活率的控制措施只有在啮齿动物密度较低时才会对种群规模产生长期影响。只有在啮齿动物密度高时才采取控制措施，即使死亡率高，也不会产生持久的效果。该模型表明，减少繁殖的控制措施可能会防止Mastomys的爆发，但只有在避孕效果很强的情况下（减少75%），才会在很长一段时间内保持低密度。如果CMR数据可用，我们建议在CMR估计的人口统计表的基础上开发莱斯利型啮齿动物有害生物种群模型。这些模型在啮齿动物管理中具有很大的潜力，并允许评估不同的策略。7 .除了改善人口模型的生态基础外，在决定控制啮齿动物时还需要考虑经济因素。我们建议，适当的人口模型将为此类决策提供重要的输入。
Summary 1 Small rodents in general and the multimammate rat Mastomys natalensis in particular cause major economic losses in Africa through damage to crops. Attempts to develop dynamic population models for this and other pest rodents are ongoing. 2 Demographic estimates from a capture–mark–recapture (CMR) study in Tanzania were used to parameterize a population model for this species. This model incorporated three functional age categories (juveniles, subadults and adults) of both sexes and used density-dependent and density-independent factors, the latter represented by rainfall. 3 The model was used to analyse the effect of rodent control on the population dynamics and resulting number of rats. Control measures affecting survival as well as reproduction were considered. 4 The model showed that control measures reducing survival will only have long-term effects on population size if they are also applied when rodent densities are low. Control measures applied only when rodent densities are high will not have persistent effects, even at high mortality rates. 5 The model demonstrated that control measures reducing reproduction are likely to prevent Mastomys outbreaks, but will keep densities low over a long period only when the contraceptive effect is strong (> 75% reduction). 6 Provided that CMR data are available, we recommend developing Leslie-type population models for rodent pests on the basis of CMR-estimated demographic schedules. Such models have great potential in rodent management and allow the evaluation of different strategies. 7 Besides improving the ecological basis of the population modelling, economic considerations need to be incorporated into decisions about rodent control. We suggest that appropriate population models will provide important input into such decision making.