Assessing the value of forecast-based dispatch in the operation of off-grid rural microgrids
Assessing the value of forecast-based dispatch in the operation of off-grid rural microgrids
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DOI：
10.1016/j.renene.2017.02.040
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发表时间：
2017-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.7
通讯作者：
Macchi, Ennio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mazzola, Simone;Vergara, Claudio;Macchi, Ennio
混合微电网预计将在发展中国家扩大电力供应方面发挥重要作用。虽然大多数这些系统的调度策略没有利用对负荷或可再生能源可用性的预测，但基于预测的策略最近作为降低运营成本的替代方案受到了关注。在这项工作中，我们开发了一个框架，在一系列关于负载质量和光伏发电预测的假设下评估这种潜力。将该方法应用于一个有600户家庭的村庄，结果显示，根据预测质量和微电网的组成，节省的成本在2%到7%之间。我们还表明，在预测运行策略的假设下，微电网组件的大小导致设计具有更高的间歇性发电份额。(C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
Hybrid microgrids are expected to play an important role in the expansion of access to electricity in developing countries. While most of these systems are operated with dispatch strategies which do not make use of predictions about the load or about the availability of renewable energy resources, forecast-based strategies have recently gained attention as an alternative to bring down operation costs. In this work, we develop a framework to assess this potential under a range of assumptions about the quality of load and photovoltaic generation forecasts. The application of the methodology to a village of 600 households reveals cost savings ranging between 2% and 7% depending on the forecast quality and the composition of the microgrid. We also show that sizing microgrid components under the assumption of a predictive operation strategy results in a design with a higher share of intermittent generation. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.