Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature
Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024
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发表时间：
2013-04-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Skuce, Andrew
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cook, John;Nuccitelli, Dana;Skuce, Andrew
我们分析了同行评审科学文献中关于人为全球变暖（AGW）的科学共识的演变，检查了1991-2011年与“全球气候变化”或“全球变暖”主题相匹配的11944篇气候摘要。我们发现，66.4%的摘要对AGW没有表示立场，32.6%支持AGW，0.7%拒绝AGW，0.3%不确定全球变暖的原因。在表达对AGW立场的摘要中，97.1%的人赞同人类导致全球变暖的共识立场。在这项研究的第二阶段，我们邀请作者对自己的论文进行评分。与摘要评级相比，自评论文中对AGW没有立场的比例较小（35.5%）。在表达AGW立场的自评论文中，97.2%的人赞同共识。对于抽象评级和作者的自我评级，随着时间的推移，在表达AGW立场的论文中，背书的百分比略有增加。我们的分析表明，拒绝AGW共识的论文数量在已发表的研究中所占的比例微乎其微。
We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991-2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. In a second phase of this study, we invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings and authors' self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW marginally increased over time. Our analysis indicates that the number of papers rejecting the consensus on AGW is a vanishingly small proportion of the published research.