Exchange rate and foreign GDP elasticities of Swiss exports across sectors and destination countries
Exchange rate and foreign GDP elasticities of Swiss exports across sectors and destination countries
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瑞士各部门和目的地国出口的汇率和国外 GDP 弹性
DOI：
10.1080/00036846.2016.1181828
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
C. Schmidt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sandra Hanslin Grossmann;Sarah M. Lein;C. Schmidt
本文通过对瑞士贸易流量的详细分析，来确定瑞士出口的两个主要决定因素--国外需求和真实的汇率--的影响在不同部门和出口目的地之间的差异。我们的主要发现是：（1）在出口部门和出口目的地，外国需求和汇率弹性都有很大差异。(ii)从结构考虑来看，国外需求趋势比汇率更重要。这是因为这两个最大的出口部门的出口对长期外国需求的发展相对敏感，而对汇率的变化相对不敏感。(iii)瑞士出口的部门结构已转向短期需求弹性较低而长期需求弹性较高的产品。因此，商品出口受商业周期波动的影响较小，而从长期增长趋势中获益更多。(iv)汇率弹性相对较低的部门的出口份额有所增加。然而，这一结果主要是由于化学品和药品以及精密仪器和手表出口的强劲增长，这也是瑞士贸易顺差的两个重要部门。
ABSTRACT This article uses a detailed breakdown of Swiss trade flows to identify how the impact of the two main determinants of Switzerland’s exports – foreign demand and the real exchange rate – varies across sectors and export destinations. Our main findings are that (i) both foreign demand and exchange rate elasticities vary substantially across both export sectors and export destinations. (ii) Foreign demand trends are more important for structural considerations than the exchange rate. This is due to the fact that exports of the two largest export sectors are relatively sensitive to long-run foreign demand developments while they are relatively insensitive to changes in the exchange rate. (iii) The sectoral structure of Switzerland’s exports has shifted towards goods that have a lower short-run demand elasticity and a higher long-run demand elasticity. Goods exports are thus less influenced by business cycle fluctuations while they benefit more from long-term growth trends. (iv) The export share of sectors with a relatively low exchange rate elasticity has increased. However, this result is mainly driven by the strong rise in exports of chemicals and pharmaceuticals as well as precision instruments and watches, which are also the two important sectors responsible for the Swiss trade surplus.