A framework for nitrogen futures in the shared socioeconomic pathways
A framework for nitrogen futures in the shared socioeconomic pathways
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.102029
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发表时间：
2020-03-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Zurek, Monika
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kanter, David R.;Winiwarter, Wilfried;Zurek, Monika
人类对氮循环的转变对生态系统、气候和人类健康产生了重大影响，使其成为我们这个时代的关键环境问题之一。了解趋势如何在21世纪世纪的过程中演变，对科学家和决策者从地方到全球的规模至关重要。情景分析是这样做的主要工具，并已应用于所有主要的环境问题，包括氮污染。然而，迄今为止，大多数解决氮流动的情景工作要么采取了狭隘的方法，侧重于单一的影响或部门，要么没有纳入更广泛的情景框架-鉴于氮污染加剧的多重环境和社会经济影响，这是一个错失的机会。利用我们不断扩大的氮流知识，这项研究介绍了一个框架，新的氮为重点的叙述的基础上广泛使用的共享社会经济途径，包括所有主要的氮污染部门（农业，工业，运输和废水）。这些新的叙述是第一个整合气候和其他环境污染控制政策的影响，同时也纳入了明确的氮控制措施。下一步是将它们用作模型输入，以评估不同氮生产，消费和损失轨迹的影响，从而促进对如何在满足关键发展目标的同时解决环境影响的理解。这一努力是评估人类如何能够在未来世纪回到这一基本要素的地球界限的重要步骤。
Humanity's transformation of the nitrogen cycle has major consequences for ecosystems, climate and human health, making it one of the key environmental issues of our time. Understanding how trends could evolve over the course of the 21st century is crucial for scientists and decision-makers from local to global scales. Scenario analysis is the primary tool for doing so, and has been applied across all major environmental issues, including nitrogen pollution. However, to date most scenario efforts addressing nitrogen flows have either taken a narrow approach, focusing on a singular impact or sector, or have not been integrated within a broader scenario framework - a missed opportunity given the multiple environmental and socio-economic impacts that nitrogen pollution exacerbates. Capitalizing on our expanding knowledge of nitrogen flows, this study introduces a framework for new nitrogen-focused narratives based on the widely used Shared Socioeconomic Pathways that include all the major nitrogen-polluting sectors (agriculture, industry, transport and wastewater). These new narratives are the first to integrate the influence of climate and other environmental pollution control policies, while also incorporating explicit nitrogen-control measures. The next step is for them to be used as model inputs to evaluate the impact of different nitrogen production, consumption and loss trajectories, and thus advance understanding of how to address environmental impacts while simultaneously meeting key development goals. This effort is an important step in assessing how humanity can return to the planetary boundary of this essential element over the coming century.