Predation can increase the prevalence of infectious disease
Predation can increase the prevalence of infectious disease
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DOI：
10.1086/513188
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发表时间：
2007-01-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Roy, Manojit
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Holt, Robert D.;Roy, Manojit
许多宿主-病原体相互作用嵌入在其他种间相互作用的网络中。最近的理论研究表明，捕食者数量的减少可能间接导致被捕食者携带的传染病激增。在这篇文章中，我们使用简单的模型来表明，在某些情况下，捕食实际上可以增加宿主中感染的平衡流行率，其中流行率定义为被感染的宿主种群的比例。我们的研究结果表明，有没有完整的概括可能的捕食压力的变化转化为感染水平的变化，没有一些了解宿主种群调控和获得性免疫的作用。我们的研究结果进一步强调了了解非调节性病原体在宿主人群中的动态的重要性，以及感染后存活并产生获得性免疫的个体所产生的人口成本的未充分研究的影响。
Many host-pathogen interactions are embedded in a web of other interspecific interactions. Recent theoretical studies have suggested that reductions in predator abundance can indirectly lead to upsurges in infectious diseases harbored by prey populations. In this note, we use simple models to show that in some circumstances, predation can actually increase the equilibrial prevalence of infection in a host, where prevalence is defined as the fraction of host population that is infected. Our results show that there is no complete generalization possible about how shifts in predation pressure translate into shifts in infection levels, without some understanding of host population regulation and the role of acquired immunity. Our results further highlight the importance of understanding the dynamics of nonregulatory pathogens in reservoir host populations and the understudied effects of demographic costs incurred by individuals that survive infection and develop acquired immunity.