Locked-in casual employment
Locked-in casual employment
复制标题
锁定临时就业
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
W. Mitchell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Welters;W. Mitchell
1992年至2008年期间，澳大利亚创造的就业机会很大一部分是临时性的。临时工的工作保障程度低，没有假期和/或病假，几乎没有培训机会，但工资可能较高。如果有稳定和永久的工作，临时工作只可能是那些没有野心在这一行发展职业生涯的人的首选。然而，当稳定和长期就业机会受到限制时，临时就业也将成为一种有吸引力的替代办法，如果它提供了一条通往非临时就业的途径。
迄今为止，澳大利亚进行的纵向研究很少，采用了供应方的方法，未能找到任何确凿的证据来支持垫脚石假说。相比之下，在以前的论文中，我们允许包括劳动力需求的影响和宏观经济对非临时就业过渡率的影响。我们发现，行业类型，职业，企业规模，整体宏观经济劳动力市场条件和该地区的城市化程度都会影响从临时就业到非临时就业的过渡率。
在本文中，我们测试的持续时间依赖假设的危险率设置使用HILDA数据集，这是指职业生涯的发展在2001年开始的数据收集之前所包含的信息。我们使用这些信息来测试持续时间依赖是否会影响向上过渡（朝向非临时就业）和向下过渡（朝向失业）的可能性。如果这两个转换率随着时间的推移而下降，那么可以合理地得出结论，工人被锁定在临时就业中。如果前者随着时间的推移而减少，后者增加或不受临时就业时间的影响，那么可以合理地得出结论，工人在临时就业、失业和/或留在劳动力队伍之外，没有任何实际的未来向上移动。本文发现的证据表明，在某些情况下，临时工被锁定在重复的临时工作的法术，几乎没有变化的逃生。
A significant part of the employment creation in Australia between 1992 and 2008 has been of casual nature. Casual workers have low levels of job security, no holiday and/or sick leave, little opportunities to train, but may receive higher wages. If secure and permanent employment was available, casual work would only likely be the first-choice option to those who have no ambition to develop a career in that line of work. However, when secure and permanent employment opportunities are constrained, casual employment would also become an attractive alternative, if it provides a pathway to non-casual employment.
The scant longitudinal research in Australia that has been conducted to date which adopts a supply-side approach, has failed to find any conclusive evidence to support the stepping stone hypothesis. In contradistinction, in a previous paper we allowed for include the impact of labour demand and the macro-economic influences on the transition rate towards non-casual employment. We showed that industry-type, occupation, firm size, overall macroeconomic labour market conditions and the degree of urbanisation of the region all affect the transition rate from casual to non-casual employment.
In this paper, we test the duration dependence hypothesis in a hazard rate setting using information contained in the HILDA dataset, which refers to career developments before the inception of the data collection in 2001. We use this information to test whether duration dependence affects both the likelihood of transiting upwards (towards non-casual employment) and transiting downwards (towards unemployment). If both transition rates decrease over time, then it is reasonable to conclude that workers are locked into casual employment. If the former reduces over time and the latter increases or is unaffected by time in casual employment, then it is reasonable to conclude that workers cycle through casual employment, unemployment and/or stay outside the labour force, without any realistic future to move upwards. The paper finds evidence that under certain circumstances, casual workers are locked-in to repetitive spells of casual work with little change of escape.