Between Scylla and Charybdis: religion, the military and support for democracy among Egyptians, 2011-2014
Between Scylla and Charybdis: religion, the military and support for democracy among Egyptians, 2011-2014
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斯库拉和卡律布狄斯之间：2011-2014 年埃及人的宗教、军事和对民主的支持
DOI：
10.1080/13510347.2017.1352576
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Hassan M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hassan M
民主作为一种文官统治的形式，必须在神职人员和军事力量之间走一条道路，这两种力量都高度参与了后穆巴拉克时代埃及的政治。作者在这篇文章中询问了2011年至2014年间埃及民众对民主的支持是如何变化的，以及这种支持与宗教观点和军队角色的关系。这个问题对于理解阿拉伯世界一个大国的民主前景非常重要。这也是比较感兴趣的，因为大众态度的社会和意识形态驱动力的变化可能会告诉我们更普遍的民主支持的性质。作者的分析是基于2011年埃及首次后穆巴拉克议会选举后和2014年伊斯兰总统穆尔西下台后对埃及人进行的全国代表性调查。调查结果表明，埃及人在很大程度上既赞成民主，也赞成不受约束的军事干预政治。作者还观察到支持民主的社会基础发生了重大变化，从宗教转向经济愿望。2011-2013年民主程序方面的负面政治经验似乎是民主支持率下降的最大因素。
Democracy as a form of civilian rule must navigate a path between clerical and military powers, both of which are highly engaged in the politics of post-Mubarak Egypt. The authors ask in this article how mass support for democracy changed in Egypt between 2011 and 2014, and how this support is connected with views on religion and the role of the military. This question is important for understanding the prospects for democracy in a major state in the Arab world. It is also of comparative interest because of what change in the social and ideological drivers of mass attitudes may tell us about the nature of democratic support more generally. The authors’ analysis is based on nationally representative surveys of Egyptians in 2011 after the country’s first post-Mubarak parliamentary elections and in 2014 after the removal of the Islamist President Morsi. The findings indicate that Egyptians in large numbers favour both democracyandunfettered military intervention in politics. The authors also observe important shifts in the social bases of support for democracy away from religion but also from economic aspiration. Negative political experience with democratic procedures in 2011–2013 seems to be the strongest factor behind the observed decrease in democratic support.