How are the international capital flows of rapidly aging countries affected by the elderly working longer?
How are the international capital flows of rapidly aging countries affected by the elderly working longer?
复制标题
老年人工作时间延长对快速老龄化国家的国际资本流动有何影响？
DOI：
10.1016/j.econmod.2020.11.003
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Kazuyuki Inagaki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mengyao Liu;Hiroaki Jotaki;Hiroshi Takahashi;Kanno Masayasu;Kazuyuki Inagaki
在人口迅速老龄化的国家，老年人的劳动参与率显著提高。为了评估老年劳动力供给与人口老龄化之间的交互效应，本文考察了国际资本流动。利用开放经济的代际重叠模型，我们分析表明，随着老年人工作时间的延长，寿命较高的国家的经常账户余额恶化的速度更快。这种相互作用效应主要来自预期寿命的生产率效应，它通过改善老年人的健康状况，从而提高生产率，放大了老年劳动力供给的影响。我们使用美国经常账户数据检验了理论结果的实证有效性。老年人劳动参与率与预期寿命的交互效应显著为负，表明理论预测在实证上成立。因此，最近人口高龄化和退休年龄的趋势将使经常收支状况恶化。
The labor force participation rate of the elderly has markedly increased in countries with a rapidly aging population. To assess the interaction effects between elderly labor supply and population aging, this paper examines international capital flows. Using an open-economy overlapping-generations model, we show analytically that current account balances in countries with higher longevity deteriorate at a faster rate when the elderly work longer. This interaction effect mainly arises from the productivity effect of life expectancy, which amplifies the impact of an elderly labor supply through the improvement in health, and thus productivity, in old age. We test the empirical validity of our theoretical results using US current account data. The interaction effect between the labor force participation rate of the elderly and life expectancy is significantly negative, suggesting that the theoretical prediction holds empirically. Therefore, recent trends in population aging and retirement age will worsen current account balances.