Age, period and cohort influences on beer, wine and spirits consumption trends in the US National Alcohol Surveys
Age, period and cohort influences on beer, wine and spirits consumption trends in the US National Alcohol Surveys
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1360-0443.2004.00820.x
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发表时间：
2004-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Rehm, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kerr, WC;Greenfield, TK;Rehm, J
目的 估计年龄、时期和群体对美国啤酒、葡萄酒和烈酒消费的单独影响。通过广泛的规格测试设计控制人口变化的线性年龄-时期-群体模型。设定美国总人口 1979-2000 年。测量五次全国酒精调查中去年啤酒、葡萄酒和烈酒消费量的月平均值。结果研究发现，1940 年之前出生的人群的烈酒消费量明显高于 1946 年之后出生的人群，尤其是 1930 年代之前的人群中，男性的烈酒消费量尤其高。在 1946-65 年的男性队列中以及在 1940 年之前的女性队列中，随着啤酒消费量的增加，也发现了显着的队列效应。研究发现，年龄对啤酒和烈酒的消费有显着的负面影响，但对葡萄酒则不然。男性的啤酒和葡萄酒消费以及女性的烈酒消费存在显着的经期影响。随着时间的推移，人口受教育程度的提高与啤酒消费量的减少和葡萄酒消费量的增加有关。结论发现，队列人口统计数据的变化对特定饮料的消费有显着影响，这表明在评估酒精政策有效性时控制这些影响的重要性，以及在预测未来特定饮料的消费趋势、酒精依赖治疗需求以及发病率和死亡率结果方面有可能大幅改进。
Aims To estimate the separate influences of age, period and cohort on the consumption of beer wine and spirits in the United States.Design Linear age-period-cohort models controlling for demographic change with extensive specification testing.Setting US general population 1979-2000.Measurements Monthly average of past-year consumption of beer, wine and spirits in five National Alcohol Surveys.Findings The strongest cohort effects are found for spirits; cohorts born before 1940 are found to have significantly higher consumption than those born after 1946, with especially high spirits consumption for men in the pre-1930s cohorts. Significant cohort effects are also found for beer with elevated consumption in the 1946-65 cohorts for men but in the pre-1940 cohorts for women. Significant negative effects of age are found for beer and spirits consumption, although not for wine. Significant period effects are found for men's beer and wine consumption and for women's spirits consumption. increased educational attainment in the population over time is associated with reduced beer consumption and increased wine consumption.Conclusions Changing cohort demographics are found to have significant effects on beverage-specific consumption, indicating the importance of controlling for these effects in the evaluation of alcohol policy effectiveness and the potential for substantial improvement in the forecasting of future beverage-specific consumption trends, alcohol dependence treatment demand and morbidity and mortality outcomes.