Roads, land use, and deforestation: A spatial model applied to belize
Roads, land use, and deforestation: A spatial model applied to belize
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DOI：
10.1093/wber/10.3.487
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发表时间：
1996-09-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Gray, DA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chomitz, KM;Gray, DA
农村公路促进了经济发展，但也助长了森林砍伐。为了探索这种权衡，本文开发了一个空间明确的土地利用模型，并使用该模型的多项式合法规范来估计替代土地利用的概率，作为土地特征和市场距离的函数。控制被纳入内生性的道路安置。该模型应用于伯利兹南部的数据，该地区正在经历生计农业和商业农业的迅速扩张，利用地理信息系统技术每隔1公里选择采样点。市场准入、土地质量和权属状况协同影响农业土地利用的可能性，对商业农业和半自给农业的可能性产生不同的影响。结果表明，在农业土壤贫瘠和人口密度低的地区修路可能是一个“双输”的提议，导致栖息地破碎化，经济回报低。
Rural roads promote economic development, but they also facilitate deforestation. To explore this tradeoff this article develops a spatially explicit model of land use and estimates probabilities of alternative land uses as a function of land characteristics and distance to market using a multinomial legit specification of this model. Controls are incorporated for the endogeneity of road placement.The model is applied to data for southern Belize, an area experiencing rapid expansion of both subsistence and commercial agriculture, using geographic information system (GIS) techniques to select sample points at 1-kilometer intervals. Market access, land quality, and tenure status affect the probability of agricultural land use synergistically, having differential effects on the likelihood of commercial versus semisubsistence farming. The results suggest that road building in areas with agriculturally poor soils and low population densities may be a ''lose-lose'' proposition, causing habitat fragmentation and providing low economic returns.