PREDICTION OF OUTCOME IN MULTIPLE-SCLEROSIS BASED ON MULTIVARIATE MODELS
PREDICTION OF OUTCOME IN MULTIPLE-SCLEROSIS BASED ON MULTIVARIATE MODELS
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/bf00920623
复制
发表时间：
1994-10-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
ANDERSEN, O
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
RUNMARKER, B;ANDERSSON, C;ANDERSEN, O
对308例多发性硬化症患者的发病队列进行了至少25年的反复随访。在急性发作的患者中，进行多变量生存分析并建立预测模型。使用终点DSS 6和疾病进展开始。对一些变量进行了测试。其中最重要的预测，因此包括在这些模型是：发病时的年龄，性别，复发后的缓解程度，单或多区域症状，受影响的神经纤维的类型，受影响的神经系统的数量。复发率与预后无关。在预测模型中，提供了系数和风险比，可用于计算进展和DSS 6的风险或预测个体患者中这些终点的中位时间。还发现进展的风险不是恒定的，而是在疾病发作后的某个时间具有最大值。对于早期发病的患者，风险在开始时很低，但在大约15年后达到最高水平，高出数倍。晚发患者在发病后立即发生终点的风险要高得多，但在几年内达到最大值，之后风险降低
An incidence cohort of 308 multiple sclerosis patients was followed up repeatedly during at least 25 years of disease. In the patients with acute onset, multivariate survival analyses were performed and predictive models created. The endpoints DSS 6 and start of progressive disease were used. A number of variables were tested. The most important of these for prediction and therefore included in these models were: age at onset, sex, degree of remission after relapse, mono- or polyregional symptoms, type of affected nerve fibres, number of affected neurological systems. The relapse rate did not correlate with prognosis. In the predictive models, coefficients and risk ratios are provided that can be used for calculating the risk of progression and DSS 6 or to predict the median time for these endpoints in individual patients. It was also found that the risk of progression is not constant, but has a maximum a certain time after disease onset. For a patient with early onset, the risk is low in the beginning, but reaches a maximum level, which is several times higher, after about 15 years. The patient with a late onset has a much higher risk of endpoint immediately after onset, but reaches the maximum in a few years, and after that the risk decreases