Studies of the Mortality of Atomic Bomb Survivors. Report 12, Part I. Cancer: 1950-1990
Studies of the Mortality of Atomic Bomb Survivors. Report 12, Part I. Cancer: 1950-1990
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DOI：
10.1667/rrav06.1
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发表时间：
2012-08-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Mabuchi, Kiyohiko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pierce, Donald A.;Shimizu, Yukiko;Mabuchi, Kiyohiko
Pierce，D.一、清水，Y.，普雷斯顿，D. L.，瓦斯，M。和Mabuchi，K.原子弹爆炸幸存者死亡率的研究。报告12，第一部分。癌症：1950-1990年。Radiat.这是继辐射影响研究基金会之后关于原子弹幸存者群体癌症死亡率的一系列定期一般性报告的继续。随访延长至1986-1990年的5年，分析包括最近估计辐射剂量的另外10，500名幸存者。这些扩展加在一起增加了约550，000人年的随访。分析的队列包括86，572例受试者，其中约60%的受试者的剂量估计值至少为0.005 Sv。在1950-1990年期间，低于和高于0.005希沃特的癌症死亡人数分别为3086人和4741人。据估计，1950年至1990年期间，这些人中约有420人死于癌症，其中约85人死于白血病。对于白血病以外的癌症（实体癌），1950-1990年的超额死亡人数中约有25%发生在过去5年中;对于儿童时期受辐射的人，这一数字接近50%。对于白血病，1950-1990年的超额死亡中只有约3%发生在过去5年。虽然白血病的大部分超额发生在暴露后的前15年，但对于实体癌，超额风险的模式显然更像是自然年龄特异性癌症风险的终身升高。利用延长后续行动的优势，更多的注意力被给予澄清的时间模式的过度癌症的风险。重点放在描述这些模式的绝对超额风险，以及相对风险。举例来说：（a）虽然儿童时期受照射者的超额相对危险度在随访期间逐渐下降，但超额绝对危险度却随着时间的推移而迅速增加;（B）虽然特定年龄的超额相对危险度在很大程度上取决于性别和受照射时的年龄，但特定年龄的超额绝对危险度几乎不取决于这些因素。目前，对过量风险的初步估计是按接触时的性别和年龄具体列出的，其中包括对这一组群的剂量具体终生风险的预测。30岁时受照射的人患实体癌的额外终生风险，男性和女性估计分别为0.10和0.14西弗。50岁时暴露的人大约有三分之一的风险。对10岁时接触的人的终生风险的预测更不确定。根据一套合理的假设，这一群体的估计数大约是30岁时受辐射者估计数的1.0-1.8倍。对于10年或30年受照的人来说，在1希沃特下患白血病的额外终生风险估计分别为男性0.015和女性0.008。50岁时暴露的人大约有三分之二的风险。实体癌的额外风险在高达约3 Sv时似乎是相当线性的，但对于白血病，剂量的明显非线性导致0.1 Sv时的风险估计约为1.0 Sv时的1/20。具体地点的风险估计，但它是敦促非常小心地解释这些，因为他们的变化可以简单地解释为不精确的估计。(C)1996年，辐射研究学会
Pierce, D. A., Shimizu, Y., Preston, D. L., Vaeth, M. and Mabuchi, K. Studies of the Mortality of Atomic Bomb Survivors. Report 12, Part I. Cancer: 1950-1990. Radiat. Res. 178, 61-87 (2012).This continues the series of periodic general reports on cancer mortality in the cohort of A-bomb survivors followed by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation. The follow-up is extended by the 5 years 1986-1990, and analysis includes an additional 10,500 survivors with recently estimated radiation doses. Together these extensions add about 550,000 person-years of follow-up. The cohort analyzed consists of 86,572 subjects, of which about 60% have dose estimates of at least 0.005 Sv. During 1950-1990 there have been 3086 and 4741 cancer deaths for the less than and greater than 0.005 Sv groups, respectively. It is estimated that among these there have been approximately 420 excess cancer deaths during 1950-1990, of which about 85 were due to leukemia. For cancers other than leukemia (solid cancers), about 25% of the excess deaths in 1950-1990 occurred during the last 5 years; for those exposed as children this figure is nearly 50%. For leukemia only about 3% of the excess deaths in 1950-1990 occurred in the last 5 years. Whereas most of the excess for leukemia occurred in the first 15 years after exposure, for solid cancers the pattern of excess risk is apparently more like a life-long elevation of the natural age-specific cancer risk. Taking advantage of the lengthening follow-up, increased attention is given to clarifying temporal patterns of the excess cancer risk. Emphasis is placed on describing these patterns in terms of absolute excess risk, as well as relative risk. For example: (a) although it is becoming clearer that the excess relative risk for those exposed as children has declined over the follow-up, the excess absolute risk has increased rapidly with time; and (b) although the excess relative risk at a given age depends substantially on sex and age at exposure, the age-specific excess absolute risk depends little on these factors. The primary estimates of excess risk are now given as specific to sex and age at exposure, and these include projections of dose-specific lifetime risks for this cohort. The excess lifetime risk per sievert for solid cancers for those exposed at age 30 is estimated at 0.10 and 0.14 for males and females, respectively. Those exposed at age 50 have about one-third these risks. Projection of lifetime risks for those exposed at age 10 is more uncertain. Under a reasonable set of assumptions, estimates for this group range from about 1.0-1.8 times the estimates for those exposed at age 30. The excess life-time risk for leukemia at 1 Sv for those exposed at either 10 or 30 years is estimated as about 0.015 and 0.008 for males and females, respectively. Those exposed at age 50 have about two-thirds that risk. Excess risks for solid cancer appear quite linear up to about 3 Sv, but for leukemia apparent nonlinearity in dose results in risks at 0.1 Sv estimated at about 1/20 of those for 1.0 Sv. Site-specific risk estimates are given, but it is urged that great care be taken in interpreting these, because most of their variation can be explained simply by imprecision in the estimates. (C) 1996 by Radiation Research Society