Methodology of the Rand Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll
Methodology of the Rand Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll
复制标题
兰德连续 2012 年总统选举民意调查方法
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2146149
复制
发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
B. Weerman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Kapteyn;Erik Meijer;B. Weerman
兰德2012年总统选举连续民意调查（CPEP）是在美国生活小组内进行的，该小组是通过传统概率抽样招募的互联网小组，以确保代表性。CPEP与其他民意调查的不同之处在于，它会反复询问相同的受访者关于他们的投票偏好。因此，它导致更稳定的结果，变化是由于个人改变了他们的想法，而不是由于随机抽样波动。CPEP也是不同的，因为它要求受访者陈述他们对候选人的偏好，以及他们投票的概率（概率百分比），这已被证明可以在选举前几个月改善预测。本文件详细介绍了CPEP所依据的方法。
The RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll (CPEP) is conducted within the American Life Panel, which is an internet panel recruited through traditional probability sampling to ensure representativeness. The CPEP differs from other polls in that it asks the same respondents repeatedly about their voting preferences. Thus, it leads to more stable outcomes and changes are due to individuals' changing their minds and not due to random sampling fluctuations. The CPEP is also different because it asks respondents to state their preferences for a candidate and the likelihood that they will vote in probabilistic terms (percent chance), which has been shown to improve forecasts several months before the election. This documents gives a detailed account of the methodology underlying the CPEP.