Modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in India
Modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in India
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DOI：
10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110049
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发表时间：
2020-10-01
影响因子：
7.8
通讯作者：
Nieto, Juan J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sarkar, Kankan;Khajanchi, Subhas;Nieto, Juan J.
截至2020年5月18日，印度报告了100，340例COVID-19确诊病例和3155例确诊死亡病例。由于缺乏特定的疫苗或治疗方法，非药物干预措施，包括社交距离，接触者追踪对于结束全球COVID-19至关重要。我们提出了一个数学模型，预测COVID-19在印度17个省和整个印度的动态。给出了一个完整的情景来展示估计的流行生命周期沿着与迄今为止的真实的数据或历史，这反过来又揭示了预测的转折点和结束阶段的SARS-CoV-2。所提出的模型监测六个区室的动态，即易感（S）、无症状（A）、恢复（R）、感染（I）、隔离感染（I-q）和隔离易感（S-q），统称为SARII（q）S（q）。进行敏感度分析以确定模型预测对参数值的稳健性，敏感参数根据印度COVID-19大流行的真实的数据估计。研究结果表明，通过隔离易感个体来降低未感染个体与感染个体之间的接触率，可以有效地降低基本繁殖数。我们的模型模拟表明，通过结合限制性社交距离和接触者追踪，消除正在进行的SARS-CoV-2大流行是可能的。我们的预测是基于真实的数据和合理的假设，而疫情的准确进程在很大程度上取决于如何以及何时执行检疫、隔离和预防措施。(C)2020爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
In India, 100,340 confirmed cases and 3155 confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 were reported as of May 18, 2020. Due to absence of specific vaccine or therapy, non-pharmacological interventions including social distancing, contact tracing are essential to end the worldwide COVID-19. We propose a mathematical model that predicts the dynamics of COVID-19 in 17 provinces of India and the overall India. A complete scenario is given to demonstrate the estimated pandemic life cycle along with the real data or history to date, which in turn divulges the predicted inflection point and ending phase of SARS-CoV-2. The proposed model monitors the dynamics of six compartments, namely susceptible (S), asymptomatic (A), recovered (R), infected (I), isolated infected (I-q) and quarantined susceptible (S-q), collectively expressed SARII(q)S(q). A sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the robustness of model predictions to parameter values and the sensitive parameters are estimated from the real data on the COVID-19 pandemic in India. Our results reveal that achieving a reduction in the contact rate between uninfected and infected individuals by quarantined the susceptible individuals, can effectively reduce the basic reproduction number. Our model simulations demonstrate that the elimination of ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is possible by combining the restrictive social distancing and contact tracing. Our predictions are based on real data with reasonable assumptions, whereas the accurate course of epidemic heavily depends on how and when quarantine, isolation and precautionary measures are enforced. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.