Human and organizational factors within the public sectors for the prevention and control of epidemic
Human and organizational factors within the public sectors for the prevention and control of epidemic
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公共部门疫情防控中的人为和组织因素
DOI：
10.1016/j.ssci.2020.104929
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发表时间：
2020-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Li, Peixuan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fu, Lipeng;Wang, Xueqing;Li, Peixuan
公共部门内普遍存在的人为和组织因素（HOF）在疫情（PCE）的预防和控制中发挥着至关重要的作用。对 HOF 的分析不充分导致了有缺陷的预防措施的继续使用。在本研究中，我们试图建立一个定量模型，以（a）澄清公共部门内 HOF 关于 PCE 的情况，（b）预测相关风险因素和流行病的概率，以及（c）诊断关键因素。首先，我们基于人为因素分析和分类系统（HFACS）系统地识别了 47 个 HOF。在确定这些因素之间的因果关系后，我们将 HFACS 框架转换为贝叶斯网络 (BN)。最后，我们应用混合HFACS-BN模型凭借其对关键风险因素的概率预测和诊断的功效来分析中国的COVID-19疫情，从而检验模型本身的可行性。本研究通过提供流行病或大流行的风险评估模型，并开发公共卫生领域的风险分析方法，有助于对公共部门内的 HOF 在 PCE 方面进行整体分析。
Pervasive human and organizational factors (HOFs) within the public sectors play a vital role in the prevention and control of epidemic (PCE). Insufficient analysis of HOFs has helped continue the use of flawed precautions. In this study, we attempted to establish a quantitative model to (a) clarify HOFs within the public sectors with regard to PCE, (b) predict the probability of relevant risk factors and an epidemic, and (c) diagnose the critical factors. First, we systematically identified 47 HOFs based on the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS). We then converted the HFACS framework into a Bayesian Network (BN) after determining the causalities among these factors. Finally, we applied the hybrid HFACS-BN model to analyze the COVID-19 outbreak in China by virtue of its efficacy in probability prediction and diagnosis of key risk factors, and thus to test the feasibility of the model itself. This study contributes to a holistic analysis of HOFs within the public sectors with regard to PCE by providing a risk assessment model for epidemics or pandemics, and developing risk analysis methods for the public health field.