Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs
Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs
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关税的宏观经济后果
DOI：
10.3386/w25402
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
A. Rose
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Furceri;Swarnali Ahmed Hannan;J. Ostry;A. Rose
我们研究关税的宏观经济后果。我们使用1963-2014年跨越151个国家的年度数据面板，从当地预测中估计脉冲响应函数。我们发现，从中期来看，关税增加会导致国内产出和生产率在经济和统计上显著下降。关税增加也会导致更多的失业、更高的不平等和真实的汇率升值，但对贸易平衡的影响很小。对发达经济体而言，在经济扩张期间关税上升，以及关税上升而非下降时，对产出和生产率的影响往往会被放大。我们的结果对我们的方法的大量扰动是稳健的，我们用行业级数据补充了我们的分析。
We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data.