Home-made or imported: On the possibility for renewable electricity autarky on all scales in Europe
Home-made or imported: On the possibility for renewable electricity autarky on all scales in Europe
复制标题
自制还是进口：欧洲实现各种规模可再生电力自给自足的可能性
DOI：
10.1016/j.esr.2019.100388
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
J. Lilliestam
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Tröndle;S. Pfenninger;J. Lilliestam
由于整个欧洲都有太阳能和风能资源，向基于可再生能源的电力系统过渡可能同时也是向自给自足的过渡。我们调查在欧洲，从大陆到国家，地区和市政各级，在何种程度上电力自给自足是可能的，假设电力自给自足只有在可再生电力的技术潜力超过当地需求时才是可能的。我们确定屋顶安装和露天光伏发电的技术潜力，以及通过分析表面的资格，考虑土地覆盖，定居点，海拔和保护区的可再生能源发电的资格的决定因素，以及在和海上风力涡轮机。根据以前的分析，我们发现，可再生电力的技术和社会潜力大于欧洲和国家层面的需求。对于国家以下一级的自给自足国家来说，情况则不同：在一些地区，需求超过了潜力，人口密度越高，这种影响就越大。为了在国家一级以下实现电力自给自足，各地区需要将其很大一部分或全部非建设用地用于可再生能源发电。国家以下一级的自给自足要求发电量接近需求，从而增加了对非建设用地的压力，特别是在人口密集的密集地区，那里的压力已经很大。我们的研究结果表明，在欧洲人口稠密的地区，低于国家水平的电力自给自足往往是不可能的。
Because solar and wind resources are available throughout Europe, a transition to an electricity system based on renewables could simultaneously be a transition to an autarkic one. We investigate to which extent electricity autarky on different levels is possible in Europe, from the continental, to the national, regional, and municipal levels, assuming that electricity autarky is only possible when the technical potential of renewable electricity exceeds local demand. We determine the technical potential of roof-mounted and open field photovoltaics, as well as on- and offshore wind turbines through an analysis of surface eligibility, considering land cover, settlements, elevation, and protected areas as determinants of eligibility for renewable electricity generation. In line with previous analyses we find that the technical-social potential of renewable electricity is greater than demand on the European and national levels. For subnational autarky, the situation is different: here, demand exceeds potential in several regions, an effect that is stronger the higher population density is. To reach electricity autarky below the national level, regions would need to use very large fractions or all of their non-built-up land for renewable electricity generation. Subnational autarky requires electricity generation to be in close proximity to demand and thus increases the pressure on non-built-up land especially in densely populated dense regions where pressure is already high. Our findings show that electricity autarky below the national level is often not possible in densely populated areas in Europe.