Major metals demand, supply, and environmental impacts to 2100: A critical review
Major metals demand, supply, and environmental impacts to 2100: A critical review
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105107
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
13.2
通讯作者：
T. Watari;K. Nansai;K. Nakajima
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Watari;K. Nansai;K. Nakajima
可持续的金属供应需要基于对预期的长期需求、供应和相关环境影响的科学理解，制定协调良好的战略和一揽子政策。然而，这些信息在各种案例研究中高度分散。因此，这项广泛的审查探索了六种主要金属-铁、铝、铜、锌、铅和镍-的预测长期状况，并提供了2030、2050和2100年前全球需求的约200个数据点。我们的研究结果显示，在21世纪，全球对这些主要金属的需求可能会持续增长，根据金属的不同，需求将增长约2-6倍。尽管满足这一需求增长所需的开采和加工必须是环境上可持续的，但现有的开采和加工情景与地球的承载能力几乎没有明确的联系。我们进一步发现，战略选择严重偏向于生命终结阶段的分析，特别是生命终结回收阶段的分析。因此，整个生命周期的各种机会都被忽视了，包括产品设计、制造和使用阶段的进步。重要的是，尽管出现了许多情景，但很少有人为主要金属流动、库存、循环和效率提供以科学为基础的目标。这些知识差距亟待解决，以确保未来的研究直接支持以科学为基础的决策和政策制定。
Sustainable metal supply requires well-coordinated strategy and policy packages based on a sound scientific understanding of anticipated long-term demand, supply, and associated environmental implications. Such information, however, is highly fragmented among various case studies. Accordingly, this extensive review explores the projected long-term status of six major metals—iron, aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, and nickel—with around 200 data points for global demand through 2030, 2050 and 2100. Our findings showed that global demand for these major metals is likely to increase continuously over the 21st century, increasing approximately 2–6-fold depending on the metal. Although the extraction and processing required to meet this increase in demand must be environmentally sustainable, the existing extraction and processing scenarios have few explicit linkages to the Earth's carrying capacity. We further found that strategy choices are heavily biased towards end-of-life phase analyses, specifically that of end-of-life recycling. Consequently, a full range of opportunities across entire life cycles is being overlooked, including advances in product design, manufacturing and in-use phases. Importantly, despite the emergence of numerous scenarios, few provide science-based targets for major metal flows, stock, circularity, and efficiency. These knowledge gaps need to be addressed urgently in order to ensure that future research directly supports science-based decision and policy making.