The collective dynamics of smoking in a large social network
The collective dynamics of smoking in a large social network
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DOI：
10.1056/nejmsa0706154
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发表时间：
2008-05-22
影响因子：
158.5
通讯作者：
Fowler, James H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Christakis, Nicholas A.;Fowler, James H.
在过去的30年里，美国吸烟的流行率大幅下降。我们研究了吸烟行为的人际传播的程度和广泛联系的人群一起戒烟的程度。方法我们研究了12,067人的密集互联的社会网络，从1971年到2003年，作为心脏病研究的一部分，反复评估。结果吸烟者和非吸烟者在网络中存在明显的聚类，聚类扩展到三个分离度。尽管总人口中的吸烟人数减少了，但吸烟者群体的规模在不同时间保持不变，这表明整个人群都在一致戒烟。在社交网络的外围也逐渐发现了吸烟者。配偶戒烟使一个人吸烟的机会减少了67%（95%置信区间[CI]，59至73）。兄弟姐妹戒烟的机会减少了25%（95%CI，14至35）。朋友的戒烟会降低36%（95%CI，12 - 55）。在小公司工作的人中，同事戒烟的机会减少了34%（95%CI，5至56）。受教育程度较高的朋友之间的相互影响要比受教育程度较低的朋友大。这些影响并没有看到邻居在直接的地理区域。结论网络现象似乎是相关的戒烟。吸烟行为通过密切和遥远的社会关系传播，相互联系的人群一致戒烟，吸烟者越来越被社会边缘化。这些发现对减少和预防吸烟的临床和公共卫生干预措施具有重要意义。
BACKGROUND The prevalence of smoking has decreased substantially in the United States over the past 30 years. We examined the extent of the person-to-person spread of smoking behavior and the extent to which groups of widely connected people quit together.METHODS We studied a densely interconnected social network of 12,067 people assessed repeatedly from 1971 to 2003 as part of the Framingham Heart Study. We used network analytic methods and longitudinal statistical models.RESULTS Discernible clusters of smokers and nonsmokers were present in the network, and the clusters extended to three degrees of separation. Despite the decrease in smoking in the overall population, the size of the clusters of smokers remained the same across time, suggesting that whole groups of people were quitting in concert. Smokers were also progressively found in the periphery of the social network. Smoking cessation by a spouse decreased a person's chances of smoking by 67% (95% confidence interval [CI], 59 to 73). Smoking cessation by a sibling decreased the chances by 25% (95% CI, 14 to 35). Smoking cessation by a friend decreased the chances by 36% (95% CI, 12 to 55). Among persons working in small firms, smoking cessation by a coworker decreased the chances by 34% (95% CI, 5 to 56). Friends with more education influenced one another more than those with less education. These effects were not seen among neighbors in the immediate geographic area.CONCLUSIONS Network phenomena appear to be relevant to smoking cessation. Smoking behavior spreads through close and distant social ties, groups of interconnected people stop smoking in concert, and smokers are increasingly marginalized socially. These findings have implications for clinical and public health interventions to reduce and prevent smoking.