Assessing Climate Change Impact on the Joint Wind-Rain Hurricane Hazard for the Northeastern U.S. Coastline
Assessing Climate Change Impact on the Joint Wind-Rain Hurricane Hazard for the Northeastern U.S. Coastline
复制标题
评估气候变化对美国东北部海岸线风雨飓风联合灾害的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Letchford
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Rosowsky;Lauren Mudd;C. Letchford
在本章中，我们介绍了一项研究的结果，该研究旨在评估未来可能发生的气候变化对美国东部海岸线的飓风风雨联合灾害的影响。为了刻画飓风风灾的特征，气候变化情景与基于模拟的飓风成因、风场和跟踪模型相结合，以检查飓风强度(最大风速)和飓风大小(半径与最大风速的比值)的可能变化。审议了若干不同的假定气候变化模型(气专委情景)。每一种情景都表明了海表面温度(SST)的变化，SST是大多数现代飓风风场模型中的驱动参数。研究了飓风发生频率和飓风路径行为的演变，尽管两者都没有明显的时间趋势。然后利用记录的与飓风事件相关的降雨数据建立了降雨风险模型，并建立了风和雨的概率模型。建立并比较了在当前和未来气候情景下的最大风速、空间范围/风暴大小和最大降雨率的两两联合分布。最后，构建了联合多变量(风速强度、空间范围/风暴大小、降雨率)分布来描述考虑气候变化影响的联合风雨飓风危害。讨论了对当前和未来设计(规范规定)的影响。
In this chapter, we present results of a study to assess the impact of possible future climate change on the joint hurricane wind and rain hazard along the US eastern coastline. To characterize the hurricane wind hazard, climate change scenarios were coupled with simulation-based hurricane genesis, wind field, and tracking models to examine possible changes in hurricane intensity (maximum wind speed) and hurricane size (radius to maximum winds). A number of different postulated climate change models (IPCC scenarios) were considered. Each scenario suggested changes in sea surface temperature (SST), the driving parameter in most modern hurricane wind field models. The evolution of hurricane genesis frequency and hurricane track behavior were examined, though no temporal trend was apparent in either. A rainfall hazard model was then developed using recorded rainfall data associated with hurricane events and a probabilistic model relating wind and rain was constructed. The pairwise joint distributions of maximum wind speed, spatial extent/storm size, and maximum rainfall rate—under current and future climate scenarios—were developed and compared. Finally, joint multivariate (wind speed intensity, spatial extent/storm size, rainfall rate) distributions were constructed to describe the joint wind-rain hurricane hazard including consideration of projected climate change impacts. Implications for current and future design (code provisions) are discussed.