THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON WINTER MORTALITY IN ENGLAND AND WALES
THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON WINTER MORTALITY IN ENGLAND AND WALES
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DOI：
10.1007/bf01208491
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发表时间：
1995-03-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
BENTHAM, G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
LANGFORD, IH;BENTHAM, G
在英国的几个重要原因，尤其是循环系统和呼吸系统疾病的死亡率中，冬季较冷的月份显着上升。温度与死亡率之间的这种紧密关联表明，由于全球变暖，气候变化可能会导致冬季过度死亡的未来减少。本文简要介绍了有关冷条件与健康之间联系的文献，随后统计模型是对1968年至1988年英格兰和威尔士年温度与每月死亡率之间的关联的发展。还考虑了其他因素，尤其是流感流行病的发生。从各种原因以及慢性支气管炎，肺炎，缺血性心脏病和脑血管疾病的温度和死亡率之间发现了高度显着的负相关。该分析开发的统计模型用于将当前状况的死亡率与可能在未来温暖的气候中发生的死亡率进行比较。结果表明，预测2050年的较高温度可能会导致冬季死亡近9000人，而最大的贡献是缺血性心脏病的死亡率。但是，当进一步的研究能够考虑到影响死亡率与气候之间关系的许多其他因素时，这些初步估计可能会发生变化。
In Britain death rates from several important causes, particularly circulatory and respiratory diseases, rise markedly during the colder winter months. This close association between temperature and mortality suggests that climate change as a result of global warming may lead to a future reduction in excess winter deaths. This paper gives a brief introductory review of the literature on the links between cold conditions and health, and statistical models are subsequently developed of the associations between temperature and monthly mortality rates for the years 1968 to 1988 for England and Wales. Other factors, particularly the occurrence of influenza epidemics, are also taken into account. Highly significant negative associations were found between temperature and death rates from all causes and from chronic bronchitis, pneumonia, ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. The statistical models developed from this analysis were used to compare death rates for current conditions with those that might be expected to occur in a future warmer climate. The results indicate that the higher temperatures predicted for 2050 might result in nearly 9000 fewer winter deaths each year with the largest contribution being from mortality from ischaemic heart disease. However, these preliminary estimates might change when further research is able to make into account a number of additional factors affecting the relationship between mortality and climate.