Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It’s in the Sign
Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It’s in the Sign
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了解政府支出乘数的大小：它就在符号中
DOI：
10.24148/wp2021-01
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Matthes
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Regis Barnichon;Davide Debortoli;C. Matthes
本文认为，一个重要的，但被忽视的，政府支出乘数的决定因素是财政干预的方向。无论我们是从（1）叙述性方法还是（2）时间限制来识别政府支出冲击，我们都发现收缩乘数与政府支出的负面冲击相关的乘数大于1，并且在经济萧条时期最大。相反，扩张乘数与正冲击相关的乘数基本上低于1，而与周期的状态无关。这些结果有助于理解文献中看似矛盾的结果。一个简单的理论模型，不完全的金融市场和下降的名义工资刚性可以合理化我们的研究结果。
This article argues that an important, yet overlooked, determinant of the government spending multiplier is the direction of the fiscal intervention. Regardless of whether we identify government spending shocks from (1) a narrative approach or (2) a timing restriction, we find that the contractionary multiplier—the multiplier associated with a negative shock to government spending—is above 1 and largest in times of economic slack. In contrast, the expansionary multiplier—the multiplier associated with a positive shock—is substantially below 1 regardless of the state of the cycle. These results help understand seemingly conflicting results in the literature. A simple theoretical model with incomplete financial markets and downward nominal wage rigidities can rationalize our findings.