Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event
Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event
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DOI：
10.5194/nhess-11-587-2011
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发表时间：
2011-02
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
J. Hošek;P. Musílek;E. Lozowski;P. Pytlak
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Hošek;P. Musílek;E. Lozowski;P. Pytlak
抽象的。北美东北海岸经常遭受严重冰暴袭击。这些冻雨事件会产生大量积冰，从而损坏建筑物，尤其是输电和配电基础设施。因此，非常需要对此类结冰事件进行建模和预测，以便预防或减轻随之而来的损害。本文介绍的案例研究重点关注 2010 年 3 月发生在纽芬兰东部的冰暴事件。我们应用数值天气预报模型和积冰算法的组合来模拟对该事件的预测。本研究的主要目标是将模拟气象变量与观测结果进行比较，并评估模型准确预测不同预测范围内积冰负荷的能力。所有模型运行都很好地模拟了 3 月 4 日夜间至 3 月 6 日早晨之间发生的冻雨事件的持续时间和时间。然而，模型中的总降水量与观测值的差异高达两倍。模型气温的准确性在很大程度上取决于预测范围，但对于所有模拟运行来说都是可以接受的。模拟的吸积载荷也与该地区输电结构的设计值进行了比较。结果表明，在报告的损坏和停电区域，模拟值超出了设计标准。
Abstract. The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply a combination of a numerical weather prediction model and an ice accretion algorithm to simulate a forecast of this event. The main goals of this study are to compare the simulated meteorological variables to observations, and to assess the ability of the model to accurately predict the ice accretion load for different forecast horizons. The duration and timing of the freezing rain event that occurred between the night of 4 March and the morning of 6 March was simulated well in all model runs. The total precipitation amounts in the model, however, differed by up to a factor of two from the observations. The accuracy of the model air temperature strongly depended on the forecast horizon, but it was acceptable for all simulation runs. The simulated accretion loads were also compared to the design values for power delivery structures in the region. The results indicated that the simulated values exceeded design criteria in the areas of reported damage and power outages.