The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones
The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones
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DOI：
10.1007/s40641-019-00149-4
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发表时间：
2019-12-01
影响因子：
9.5
通讯作者：
Seiler, Christian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Catto, Jennifer L.;Ackerley, Duncan;Seiler, Christian
综述目的本综述汇集了有关温带气旋未来结构、特征、动力学和影响的最新研究。它利用理想化模型和复杂的气候模拟进行研究，以评估这些未来变化的已知和未知内容。最新发现存在一些相互作用的过程，这些过程导致了未来温带气旋变化的不确定性，例如，大气水平和垂直结构的变化以及由于温度上升而导致的水分含量增加。总结虽然降水强度很可能会增加，同时伴随着相关的潜在加热的增加，但目前尚不清楚这将在多大程度上以及在哪些特定气候条件下反馈以增加温带气旋的强度。气旋。未来的研究可以集中于缩小理想化模型和复杂气候模型之间的差距，以及更好地了解温带气旋未来变化的区域影响。
Purpose of Review This review brings together recent research on the structure, characteristics, dynamics, and impacts of extratropical cyclones in the future. It draws on research using idealized models and complex climate simulations, to evaluate what is known and unknown about these future changes.Recent Findings There are interacting processes that contribute to the uncertainties in future extratropical cyclone changes, e.g., changes in the horizontal and vertical structure of the atmosphere and increasing moisture content due to rising temperatures.Summary While precipitation intensity will most likely increase, along with associated increased latent heating, it is unclear to what extent and for which particular climate conditions this will feedback to increase the intensity of the cyclones. Future research could focus on bridging the gap between idealized models and complex climate models, as well as better understanding of the regional impacts of future changes in extratropical cyclones.