Risk averse choices of managed beach widths under environmental uncertainty
Risk averse choices of managed beach widths under environmental uncertainty
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环境不确定性下管理海滩宽度的风险规避选择
DOI：
10.1111/nrm.12324
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Ashton, Andrew D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jin, Di;Hoagland, Porter;Ashton, Andrew D.
应用理论的地理经济学方法，我们研究了当侵蚀的海岸海滩被滋养时（即，当填充物被放置以扩大海滩时）影响海滩宽度选择的关键因素。在这一地理经济框架内，最佳海滩宽度与其危害保护和娱乐价值呈正相关，与营养成本和贴现率负相关。使用动态建模框架，我们研究了在海平面加速下使净现值最大化的海滩宽度和营养的时间路径。然后，我们分析了由自然海岸线动态、间歇性大风暴或海平面上升引起的对预期未来海滩宽度的环境不确定性如何导致经济选择倾向于更窄的海滩。风险厌恶会以矛盾的方式影响海岸财产所有者对海滩宽度的选择：必须平衡危险保护的预期收益与重复滋养行动的预期成本。对资源管理者的建议由于环境的不确定性，海岸保护项目是有风险的投资。重要的是要考虑不确定性对这些项目成本效益评估的影响。在没有不确定性的情况下，最佳海滩宽度与其危害保护和娱乐价值呈正相关，与营养成本和贴现率负相关。未来海岸线位置的不确定性对最佳海滩宽度的选择有负面影响。风险厌恶会以矛盾的方式影响沿海房产所有者对海滩宽度的选择：为了保护家园而选择更宽的海滩，而如果营养的有效性不确定，则选择更窄的海滩。
Applying a theoretical geo‐economic approach, we examined key factors affecting decisions about the choice of beach width when eroded coastal beaches are being nourished (i.e., when fill is placed to widen a beach). Within this geo‐economic framework, optimal beach width is positively related to its values for hazard protection and recreation and negatively related to nourishment costs and the discount rate. Using a dynamic modeling framework, we investigated the time paths of beach width and nourishment that maximized net present value under an accelerating sea level. We then analyzed how environmental uncertainty about expected future beach width, arising from natural shoreline dynamics, intermittent large storms, or sea‐level rise, leads to economic choices favoring narrower beaches. Risk aversion can affect a coastal property owner's choice of beach width in contradictory ways: the expected benefits of hazard protection must be balanced against the expected costs of repeated nourishment actions.Recommendations for Resource ManagersBecause of environmental uncertainty, coastal protection projects are risky investments. It is important to consider the effects of uncertainty on cost–benefit assessments of these projects.Without uncertainty, optimal beach width is positively related to its values for hazard protection and recreation and negatively related to nourishment costs and the discount rate.Uncertainty about future shoreline positions has a negative impact on the choice of an optimal beach width.Risk aversion can affect a coastal property owner's choice of beach width in contradictory ways: a wider beach to protect their home, and a narrower beach if the effectiveness of nourishment is uncertain.
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自然资源经济学：笔记和问题
影响因子：
8.2
作者：
J. Conrad;C. Clark
通讯作者：
C. Clark
DOI：
10.1086/340633
发表时间：
2002-07
期刊：
The Journal of Geology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Keqi Zhang;B. Douglas;S. Leatherman
通讯作者：
Keqi Zhang;B. Douglas;S. Leatherman
确定海滩保护费用：为公共物品付费
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
J. Pompe
通讯作者：
J. Pompe
DOI：
10.2307/2297693
发表时间：
1984-04
期刊：
The Review of Economic Studies
影响因子：
--
作者：
R. Pindyck
通讯作者：
R. Pindyck
沙质海岸线上的环境信号粉碎
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Lazarus E
通讯作者：
Lazarus E