The mathematical analysis of concurrent epidemics of yaws and chickenpox
The mathematical analysis of concurrent epidemics of yaws and chickenpox
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DOI：
10.1017/s0022172400040730
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发表时间：
1966-12
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
J. Gart;J. L. de Vries
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Gart;J. L. de Vries
用简单确定性流行病的数学模型分析了荷属新几内亚一个村庄儿童中水痘和雅司病流行之间的关系。它表明，雅司病的流行在水痘流行后的一个月内明显加速，但在随后的几个月内又恢复到以前的速度。由于水痘的影响，雅司病病例的数量是根据雅司病流行的预计过程估计的。据统计证实，那些感染水痘的儿童更容易在随后的一个月内成为雅司病病例。这些结果指出雅司病在最近流行水痘的人群中传播的危险要快得多。
The relationship between chickenpox and yaws epidemics occurring among children in a village in Netherlands New Guinea is analysed using the mathematical model for a simple deterministic epidemic. It is shown that the yaws epidemic accelerated significantly in the month following the chickenpox epidemic, but that it reverted to its previous rate in the succeeding months. The number of yaws cases attributable to the influence of the chickenpox is estimated from the projected course of the yaws epidemic. It is statistically verified that those children contracting chickenpox were more likely to become yaws cases in the subsequent month. These results point to the danger of yaws's spread being much more rapid among a population which has recently been subject to an epidemic of chickenpox.