Fiscal Situation of India in the Time of COVID-19
Fiscal Situation of India in the Time of COVID-19
复制标题
COVID-19 时期印度的财政状况
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3571103
复制
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Gautham Udupa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Balajee;Shekhar Tomar;Gautham Udupa
COVID-19大流行是一场健康危机，令全球经济陷入动荡。在这种情况下，印度政府已经宣布了一项价值1.7万亿卢比的财政计划，但有理由要求更多的支出。我们使用来自不同国家的数据，首先估计了财政支出与COVID-19传播、经济紧缩和宏观经济因素之间的关系。我们的估计表明，根据全球基准，印度可以花费其国内生产总值（GDP）的2.2%-4.8%。考虑到疫情导致的税收和产出缺口，我们预计中央政府的财政赤字在最悲观的情况下可能高达8. 4%，而在相对乐观的情况下可能高达3. 7%。最后，我们认为，补贴合理化是在维持财政纪律的同时为急需的卫生支出和转移支付提供资金的前进方向
COVID-19 pandemic, a health crisis, has rattled the global economy. In this situation, the Indian government has announced a fiscal package worth INR 1.7 trillion, but there are arguments for even more spending. Using data from a cross-section of countries, we first estimate the relationship between fiscal spending and COVID-19 spread, economic stringency, and macroeconomic factors. Our estimates suggest that India can spend 2.2-4.8 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), based on the global benchmark. Accounting for tax and output shortfall due to the pandemic, we project the fiscal deficit of the central government can be as high as 8.4 percent, in the most pessimistic case, while 3.7 percent in a relatively optimistic case. We finally argue that subsidy rationalization is the way forward to fund the much-needed health expenditures and transfers while maintaining the fiscal discipline