A mathematical analysis of the spread of HIV/AIDS in Japan
A mathematical analysis of the spread of HIV/AIDS in Japan
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日本艾滋病毒/艾滋病传播的数学分析
DOI：
10.1093/imammb/15.4.299
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发表时间：
1998
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
M. Kakehashi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Kakehashi
使用数学模型分析了艾滋病毒/艾滋病在日本的传播情况，该模型结合了成年人之间的配对以及与商业性工作者的性接触。模型中涉及的参数是根据日本的实际情况尽可能仔细地指定的。合理的范围被分配给那些数值未知的参数。该模型用于模拟感染艾滋病毒的商业性工作者进入没有艾滋病毒的人群的影响。结果表明，根据参数的不同设置，该模型可以生成不同的场景，爆炸性感染或时间传播。然后分析了偶尔引入感染HIV的商业性工作者能够导致HIV感染爆发性传播的条件。这种情况用临界传播概率来概括，以便我们可以轻松评估风险程度。对于一些不清楚的参数，计算了对临界传输概率的敏感性。我们还使用拉丁超立方采样方法计算了临界传输概率的合理范围，其中参数分布在合理范围内。根据模型分析得出的结论是，日本艾滋病毒传播的实际情况应该非常接近决定艾滋病毒爆发性传播是否真正发生的临界点。这也表明，立即采取有效行动可能有助于防止日本艾滋病毒感染的爆发。
The spread of HIV/AIDS in Japan was analysed using a mathematical model incorporating pair formations between adults and sexual contacts with commercial sex workers. The parameters involved in the model were carefully specified as realistically as possible to the actual situation in Japan. Plausible ranges were assigned to those parameters for which values are not known precisely. The model was used to simulate the effect of HIV infected commercial sex workers introduced into a population without HIV. It was shown that the model could generate different scenarios, an explosive infection or a temporal spread, according to different settings of the parameters. Then the condition for occasional introduction of HIV infected commercial sex workers to be able to cause an explosive spread of HIV infection was analysed. This condition was summarized in terms of the critical transmission probability so that we could easily evaluate the degree of the risk. For some unclear parameters, sensitivity to the critical transmission probability was calculated. We also calculated a plausible range of the critical transmission probability using the Latin hypercube sampling method where the parameters were distributed on the plausible ranges. According to the analyses of the model it is concluded that the actual situation of HIV spread in Japan should lie very near the critical point that determines whether the explosive HIV spread actually takes place. This also suggests that effective action taken immediately could be useful to prevent explosive HIV infection in Japan.