Supporting hurricane inventory management decisions with consumer demand estimates
Supporting hurricane inventory management decisions with consumer demand estimates
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jom.2016.05.006
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发表时间：
2016-07-01
影响因子：
7.8
通讯作者：
Butler, John C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Morrice, Douglas J.;Cronin, Paul;Butler, John C.
在自然灾害的威胁下，对任何试图提供商品或服务的人来说，匹配供应和需求都是非常具有挑战性的。在本文中，我们认为零售商在飓风事件中所面临的库存分配问题，并提供见解，可以适用于人道主义行动在缓慢发生的事件。我们开始使用回归，三角形的三个信息来源的实证分析：一个大的销售点数据集从得克萨斯州墨西哥湾沿岸的零售商，零售商的运营和物流限制，飓风预报数据从国家飓风中心（NHC）。我们建立了飓风天气预报的时间，风暴的预测登陆位置和飓风销售之间的强关联。风暴强度被发现有一个较弱的整体库存决策的关联。利用实证分析的结果和NHC的预测数据，我们构建了一个状态空间模型的需求在飓风的威胁和开发的库存管理模型，以满足消费者的需求之前，飓风登陆。基于问题的结构，我们将这种情况建模为一个两阶段，两个位置的库存分配模型，从一个集中的配送中心，平衡运输，短缺和持有成本。该模型用于探讨追索权的作用，即，推迟部分库存分配，直到观察飓风登陆时的状态。我们的方法提供了宝贵的见解，在任何情况下，追索权可能是值得的，也可能是不值得的，在任何设置中，预期的极端事件驱动消费者的需求。(C)2016爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
Matching supply and demand can be very challenging for anyone attempting to provide goods or services during the threat of a natural disaster. In this paper, we consider inventory allocation issues faced by a retailer during a hurricane event and provide insights that can be applied to humanitarian operations during slow-onset events. We start with an empirical analysis using regression that triangulates three sources of information: a large point-of-sales data set from a Texas Gulf Coast retailer, the retailer's operational and logistical constraints, and hurricane forecast data from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). We establish a strong association between the timing of the hurricane weather forecast, the forecasted landfall position of the storm, and hurricane sales. Storm intensity is found to have a weaker association on overall inventory decisions. Using the results of the empirical analysis and the NHC forecast data, we construct a state-space model of demand during the threat of a hurricane and develop an inventory management model to satisfy consumer demand prior to a hurricane making landfall. Based on the structure of the problem, we model this situation as a two-stage, two-location inventory allocation model from a centralized distribution center that balances transportation, shortage and holding costs. The model is used to explore the role of recourse, i.e., deferring part of the inventory allocation until observing the state of the hurricane as it moves towards landfall. Our approach provides valuable insights into the circumstances under which recourse may or may not be worthwhile in any setting where an anticipated extreme event drives consumer demand. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.