Effects of global climate mitigation on regional air quality and health
Effects of global climate mitigation on regional air quality and health
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DOI：
10.1038/s41893-023-01133-5
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发表时间：
2023-05
影响因子：
27.6
通讯作者：
Xinyuan Huang;Vivek Srikrishnan;J. Lamontagne;K. Keller;W. Peng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xinyuan Huang;Vivek Srikrishnan;J. Lamontagne;K. Keller;W. Peng
气候缓解可以带来空气质量和健康的共同好处。这些对健康的影响可能如何在各国之间分布仍不清楚。在这里，我们使用一个气候-能源-健康耦合模型来评估全球碳价格对世界近30,000个未来国家(SOW)的不同国家的健康影响。随着碳价格降低化石燃料的使用量，我们的分析表明，在目前空气污染最严重的国家，环境中的细颗粒物(PM2.5)水平和相关的死亡风险持续下降。然而，对于一些污染较少的国家来说，由于生物能源使用和土地利用变化导致的排放增加，碳价格可能会增加一些被考虑的母猪的死亡风险。在我们的模型中，这些潜在的健康共同危害在很大程度上是由砍伐森林的规模和方法驱动的。要对这些分配结果进行有力和定量的理解，就需要改进对相关深层次不确定性、国别特点和跨部门互动的表述。
Climate mitigation can bring air quality and health co-benefits. How these health impacts might be distributed across countries remains unclear. Here we use a coupled climate–energy–health model to assess the country-varying health effects of a global carbon price across nearly 30,000 future states of the world (SOWs). As a carbon price lowers fossil fuel use, our analysis suggests consistent reductions in ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels and associated mortality risks in countries that currently suffer most from air pollution. For a few less-polluted countries, however, a carbon price can increase the mortality risks under some of the considered SOWs due to emissions increases from bioenergy use and land-use changes. These potential health co-harms are largely driven in our model by the scale and method of deforestation. A robust and quantitative understanding of these distributional outcomes requires improved representations of relevant deep uncertainties, country-specific characteristics and cross-sector interactions.