Assessing differences in legislators' revealed preferences: A case study on the 107th U.S. Senate
Assessing differences in legislators' revealed preferences: A case study on the 107th U.S. Senate
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DOI：
10.1214/16-aoas951
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发表时间：
2016-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Chelsea Lofland;Abel Rodríguez;Scott Moser
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文献类型：
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作者：
Chelsea Lofland;Abel Rodríguez;Scott Moser
点名数据广泛用于评估立法者的偏好和意识形态，以及检验立法行为理论。特别是，点名数据经常被用来确定立法者所揭示的偏好是否受到政党压力、少数派地位或程序规则等外部力量的影响。本文描述了一种贝叶斯分层模型，该模型扩展了现有的空间投票模型，以使用与此类假设相关的后验概率来测试有关偏好差异的尖锐假设。我们使用我们的模型来研究第 107 届美国参议院期间政党多数地位的变化对参议员所揭示的偏好的影响。该分析提供了证据表明政党关系的变化可能会影响立法者的显性偏好，但没有提供多数地位对立法者的显性偏好的影响的证据。
Roll call data are widely used to assess legislators' preferences and ideology, as well as test theories of legislative behavior. In particular, roll call data is often used to determine whether the revealed preferences of legislators are affected by outside forces such as party pressure, minority status or procedural rules. This paper describes a Bayesian hierarchical model that extends existing spatial voting models to test sharp hypotheses about differences in preferences the using posterior probabilities associated with such hypotheses. We use our model to investigate the effect of the change of party majority status during the 107th U.S. Senate on the revealed preferences of senators. This analysis provides evidence that change in party affiliation might affect the revealed preferences of legislators, but provides no evidence about the effect of majority status on the revealed preferences of legislators.