Good Booms, Bad Booms
Good Booms, Bad Booms
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好的繁荣，坏的繁荣
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2398401
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Guillermo Ordoñez
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gary B. Gorton;Guillermo Ordoñez
信贷繁荣并不罕见，有些以危机告终（坏繁荣），有些则没有（好繁荣）。我们证明，信贷繁荣始于生产率增长的提高，随后在不良繁荣期间福尔斯得更快。我们建立了一个模型，在这个模型中，危机发生在信贷繁荣向信息制度过渡时，对抵押品进行了仔细的检查。当抵押品支持低生产率的项目时，这种检查更有价值，因此在生产率下降幅度较大的繁荣时期，危机更有可能发生。我们测试的模型的主要预测，并确定违约概率的主要组成部分，衡量生产力，危机背后。
Credit booms are not rare, some end in a crisis (bad booms) whereas others do not (good booms). We document that credit booms start with an increase in productivity growth, which subsequently falls faster during bad booms. We develop a model in which a crisis happens when a credit boom transits toward an information regime with careful examination of collateral. As this examination is more valuable when collateral backs projects with low productivity, crises are more likely during booms that display larger productivity declines. We test the main predictions of the model and identify the default probability as the main component of measured productivity that lies behind crises.